A close above will be the first since August 2015. Price also rallies above highs from last week....

The EURJPY has moved above its 100 week MA line today. That level MA level comes in at 124.266. The price has not closed above the 100 week MA since August 15, 2015. That's a pretty long time ago.

Of course, the break is really not "real" until the end of the week (it is a weekly MA level after all). However, the "in progress," break is still more bullish. Traders have to assume it will stick. If the break fails (even if it is on Tuesday, Wednesday or even Friday), bullish traders buying the break today, will likely exit on the failure.

So the 124.266 (100 week MA level) is currently a key risk level for longs.

On the way higher, the pair moved above the highs from last week at 124.48 and 124.53 respectively. Did those highs take out the 100 week MA last week? Yes. The 100 week MA was at 124.412. So each move above last week, failed.

Traders, who are cautiously bullish on the break, may look at those two highs as a closer risk level now. Stay above more bullish. Move below less bullish (with the 100 week MA a confirmation line in the sand).

What might make traders a bit more cautious from the bullish perspective?

Looking back at the weekly chart, the 38.2% of the move down from the 2014 high comes in at 124.89. The high for the day? 124.889. So, we reached that retracement target and stalled.

As a result, there is a battle between the bulls who like the EURJPY above the 100 week MA and the sellers against the 38.2% who are leaning against the retracement level. A break above will be more bullish. Upside targets?

  • Natural resistance at 126.00 and 126.11 - swing low from April 2015
  • 126.46. High from April 28, 2016
  • 128.21. High from March 31, 2016.

If you drill to the 5- minute chart, the pair is holding trend line support so far, and is also holding a distance from the 100 bar MA (at 134.54 and moving higher. The correction of the last leg higher, stalled at the 50% of that move higher (see yellow area). That helps to keep the bulls more in control.

So, the buyers are more in control. Do they have more work to do? Yes. Trading involves taking out a level and going for the next.

Traders who have been long, took some profit against the risk defining level. The question is, "Will those sellers, be forced to cover on a break above the retracement level?" OR "Will more sellers push the price back lower and below the aforementioned support levels?".

Bullish work in progress.