Technically speaking, the EURJPY is defining the inside bullish and bearish boundaries for the week

The EURJPY tested the 100 hour MA on Friday and stalled. Today it did the same thing (see blue line in the chart below). The 100 and 200 hour MA are now converged at 135.81. The two MAs and the highs from today and Friday help to define the upside boundary in the new trading week.

Below, the lows today (two separate ones) stalled right above the 50% of the move up from the Sept 23rd low at the 125.048. So there is reason to think that buyers might be trying to keep a floor in place for the pair.

The price sits between the two (closer to the lower boundary), but not yet ready to make a break (or so it seems).

Any other technical bias clues?

Well, looking at the daily chart (see daily chart above), the pair is trading between the 100 and 200 day MAs. The 100 day MA (blue line in the chart below) is above at 135.458. While the 200 day MA (the green line in the chart below) is currently at 134.55. The current price sits between the two. This is a wider boundary for the week. The price over the last few months have spent some time above each, below each and now in between each. Still looking for a break with momentum.

How about intraday? What is the 5-minute chart saying?

Looking at it, the pair has more of a bearish bias. The reasons include:

  1. The correction off the low, held the 38.2% twice (at 135.393
  2. The 100 bar MA has been tested as well. We are currently testing that level over the last 35 or so minutes.
  3. The earlier Asia-Pacific and London morning session lows have not been approached in the NY session.

As a result, the bears have the edge.

Now buyers below are ok, but they need to see the price move back above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart to give something more than a double bottom at the 50% (hourly). That is the bare minimum.

Buyers from below will also need to see the 38.2-50% broken (see yellow area in the chart below). That would take the price back above the 200 bar MA as well (green line in the chart below) AND the lows from the Asian Pacific/London morning session (see green circles in the chart below)

Those are the hurdles for the buyers. Until those steps are taken, the sellers have more control....for now.