Shuffles to and through 100 day MA but stalls
The EURUSD continued to inch lower in trading today. A 44 pip trading range is all it could muster on the day before the NFP. Expectations are for a 200K number tomorrow after 173K last month. There is lots of chatter about revisions going higher. We will see. The unemployment rate is expected at 5.1%. Today, ISM Manufacturing will be released at 10 AM with expectations of 50.6 vs 51.1. The regional indices have not been stellar. Initial claims are expected at 271K
Technically, the pairs peeks below the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart below) have to be a disappointment for sellers looking for a break and run (the low went to 1.1134 while the 100 day MA is at 1.11418). That's it?
The 200 day sits above at 1.1171. A 100 day/200 day are converging - indicative of a market that does not know which way it wants to travel. With the unemployment report due out tomorrow, the pair may continue to waffle, but there should be a break somewhere today. 44 pips is simply too narrow.
On a move higher, a move above the 200 day MA at the 1.1171 level will next look toward the 200 and 100 hour MAs at the 1.11945 and 1.12035 area. Those two moving averages are also converged also indicative of a market that does not really know which way it wants to travel. The range this week is 146 pips. That - if it held - would be a new low range for 2015 surpassing 148 pips during the August 2nd week.
