24 pip trading range
The EURUSD is stuck in a 24 pips trading range for the day, and as you can imagine is just waffling up and down. The low reached 1.1140 the high 1.1164. The price currently trades closer to the low at 1.1145.
Technically, the 1.11609-71 has a number of swing levels going back to mid May (see red circles in the chart above and the yellow area). The price moved into the yellow area by a few pips but kept the area as a ceiling. I have to continue to give the sellers more control below that area.
Now, there is decent support now at 1.11316 where the low from June 15th and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart is currently located. Traders who are short, now need that level broken. The next target would be the low from May 30 at 1.1108. The risk reward at current levels is not all that great. You have to be thinking a break lower (below 1.1131) to make it more worthwhile. It is certainly possible. The range is only 24 pips and a move below the 1.1131 support would only get the range to 32 pips. So there is room to roam.
Clues from the 5-minute?
Looking at the chart below the price action says up and down, non trending. There is a double top at the highs (at 1.1164) and a double bottom at the lows (at 1.1140). In between sits the 100 and 200 bar MAs (blue and green lines) at 1.1152-539. Stay below keeps the sellers more in control.
SUMMARY: When in a narrow trading range, there is some point where the price action takes the pair through an extreme. On the break there should be a momentum move in the direction of the break. The EURUSD is currently more bearish but it needs to get through the low for the day and then the 1.1131 level to get sellers more excited and relieved.
