Moves toward 1.5000 level
The GBPUSD is trading at session highs after the as expected Non Manufacturing ISM data for March did not derail the lower dollar trend since the US employment report.
The pair is moving closer to the 1.4984-1.5000 area which will be a bigger test of the buyers enthusiasm (high has reached 1.4971). Looking at the 4 hour chart below, the 1.4984 is the 38.2% of the move down from the February 26 high. The most recent highs March 20 come in at from 1.4983 to 1.4993. Of course the 1.5000 level is a natural level of resistance. Above that the 1.5030 area was a low and high area from the March 6 to March 12 time period (see blue circles).
What might turn the technical picture around today?
Looking at the 5 minute chart below, the move higher today is a bit choppy at times, but for most of the day, the price has traded above the 100 bar MA (blue line in the chart below). If the price action is to reverse, the bullishness seen over the last few days, a move below the MA would be a clue the sellers are starting to take back some control. Also near the moving average, is trend line support and the 38.2% of the days trading range. As a result, breaking all three would give buyers cause for pause.
Although the bias remains bullish, trader will have the May elections in the forefront of their minds and with no clear favorite, a hung Parliament should keep the upside contained (think back to the Scotland referendum). So I would be inclined to look toward key levels to hold resistance, "just because" the fear of a reversal of fortunes on election jitters. Having said, that the bias remains more bullish technically. So there will need to be a confirmation from a breaking of support (i.e.. the 100 bar MA, trend line and 38.2% correction point), to give the sellers/bears the confidence they need to take it lower.