Forex technical analysis: USDCAD tests 100 day MA

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdcad

Trades in the channel

The USDCAD is near highs and in the process is testing the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart below at 1.26144).

The price on Friday traded above and below the MA line after the Canada employment report (-88K employment change, but all part time and offset the prior two months of oversized gains). The last three hours are seeing the price waffle above and below the MA line.

Overall, the bias is more bullish. The price stalled earlier in the day at the 100 hour MA and lower trend line. The pair is higher on the day. Having said, that getting and staying above the 100 day MA is required. 

On the topside, the upper trend line (discounting the spike bar) comes in at 1.2650.   I would expect seller to lean on the test with stops on a break above.  

If the 100 day MA fails and there is more downside, the lower trend line on the 5-minute chart and the swing intraday levels will be eyed as potential support.  Staying above would keep the bullish momentum today going. Moving below would break that bias.

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