Forex technical analysis: USDCAD trades below 1.2500 but 50% level nearby

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdcad

Lowest level since mid October

The USDCAD has traded to 1.2499 - just below the 1.2500 level.  Crude oil remains above $60 (trades at $60.33) which is supportive to the loonie.  Freezing temperatures over most of the US is keeping energy price supported.

The 1.2500 level is a key natural support level but not far from that level is the 50% of the move up from the September 2017 low. That comes in at 1.24906.  I would think the combination will give shorts a cause for pause (with stops below).   On a break, the swing levels between 1.24114 and 1.2431 will be the downside targets.

Helping the bearish bias is that the pair fell below the 100 day MA last week and found momentum on the break.  The highs from Friday and again today stayed comfortably below that MA line (blue line in the chart above at 1.2601. The high today reached 1.2574).