Forex technical analysis: USDJPY breaks higher with stocks/dollar buying

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdjpy

Is the break for real now?

The USDJPY fell below the 50% and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart yesterday. 

Today, there was a failed/fake break back above that level in the early European session and another one in the NY session.  

The price just pushed above that area, with help from the GBPUSD fall and the stock market rebound.  Is this break for real?  

We never really know.   The thing we do know is that MA is still at the 111.20 level. The 50% of  the move up from the April low (see daily chart below) is still at 111.245. So stay above is more bullish.  Move below and it is another failed break.   That area is  risk for longs now.....

Where do we go?

The 50% of the weeks trading range is at 112.041 (see hourly chart above).  If the buying really starts to kick in, the 100 hour MA comes in at 112.56 (and moving lower). The 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart comes in at the same level now.