Backs off after the better data
The GBPUSD moved higher today, breaking away from its 100 day MA at 1.31578, and helped by better than expected retail sales. Remember, the CPI was better yesterday as well, but ran into Brexit news that stalled the rally.
The run higher today raced to a high of 1.3298. The last swing high from July 16 reached 1.32925. The 1.3300 is a natural resistance area. The 1.33163 is the 38.2% of the 2018 trading range (the EURUSD is also testing the 38.2% retracement today). A topside trend line comes in just above the 38.2% level.
The better US data today, seems to have put a stall on the GBP buying/the USD selling.
Drilling to the hourly chart, the price has dipped a bit from the resistance area above. However it is still well away from the 38.2% of the move up from the low from yesterday (the last leg higher). That comes in at 1.32203. The broken trend line is a little lower than that at 1.3216 (and moving higher). If the break is to look shaky, moves back below those levels will make the break look shaky.
Closer risk?
Looking at the 5-minute chart, the 1.3251 is the 50% of the last trend run higher today. It is also near a lower trend line. Move below and the technical picture starts to change (a little more bearish).
