Dollar index continues to do battle around the 100-day MA
Buyers are not giving up just yet and continue to defend the daily support from the 100-day MA (red line) @ 94.55. Without a firm break below, the bias continues to favour a more bullish tone although the inability to move away from the continuous tests of the 100-day MA isn't an encouraging sign.
Add to the fact that near-term price bias continues to stay more bearish means that we're playing ping pong between the 100-day MA and the 100-hour MA this week:
For buyers, the key is to move back above the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 94.67 for starters and then reclaim the near-term bullish bias by breaking back above the 200-hour MA (blue line) @ 94.91. But the "all clear" I would say is for buyers to sustain a move back above 95.00. That will give more confidence for a move back to the upside again.
As for sellers, it's all about moving below the 100-day MA and holding a firm daily break below it. Once that gives way, it's very much like seeing cracks in a dam. And that won't be a good sign for the greenback's outlook moving forward.
This will continue to be a key chart to watch out for in spite of the ping pong action here. Because this will ultimately drive dollar sentiment in general against other major currencies but more so in EUR/USD as the euro holds more than a 50% weight in the dollar index.
