Enough about the ECB, it's time to bring the yanks back into play and the wonderful NFP's
The yanks don't like being left out of a party but it was all about Europe yesterday so today they are our hosts
Let's be clear on one thing. This one report won't be a game changer for the Fed and whatever path they are on. Unless we see the most amazing collapse and signals that the jobs market is disappearing into a fiery pit of doom, this will just be more icing on the cake if it's good, and will be brushed off if it's mildly bad
The dollar faced some natural pressure yesterday in the fallout from the ECB (there I go talking about them again) but it also found a bid while Yellen was talking
We've also seen limited reaction to data points and more importantly, any positive news or Fed comments that have sent it higher haven't lasted. For all that's gone on we're still in the same old range as we wait for the Fed
For me that's the biggest signal that while we'll get a reaction to the NFP, it may not be a lasting one nor one that sends the price off to pastures new
You don't have to be a TA genius to see what the range is right now
USDJPY H4 chart
122.25 to 1.2360/75 marks the edges of the range since Nov and we've had plenty of news over that time but thus we remain enclosed in it
Further out and up and we need to focus on the levels that played a part in the run up to the 125's. 124.00 will have the normal big figure influences on it and 124.15/20 has also played a role as both resistance and support. 124.45/50 looks strong also and then we're up to 125.00 and the years high
USDJPY daily chart
Looking down, 122.25 down to 122.00 looks to be a level that could bring some pain if it breaks. If it does then we could face a swift trip down to 121.50/60, with maybe some stickiness around 121.70. 121.30 may hold support next an ahead of 121.00 then we have another strong old resistance area at 120.60/70 that goes back further than shown on the chart above
There's the ballpark we're likely to play in today and so for me the trade is going to be playing the edges where any volatility takes us. I'll be keen to see the how the upside plays out on a good number as there will be some in the market who will be waiting for a good number to cement Fed bets. I'll be suspicious about whether they'll keep any intraday moves lasting though
If we do get a shocker but not a game changer, then this might be one of the last opportunities to get in on a decent dip in the run up to the FOMC, if you favour a hike
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