NZD employment (4:45 PM ET), Australia Retail Sales/Trade balance
The NZ QoQ change for the 3Q employment statistics will be released at 4:45 PM et. The estimates are the following:
- Unemployment rate: Est 6.0% from 5.9%.
- Employment change: +0.4% vs +0.3% last
- Employment change YoY: 2.5% vs 3.0% last
- Participation rate: 69.3% vs 69.3% last
- Private wage ex overtime QoQ :+0.5% vs +0.5% last
- Private wages, including overtime: +0.5% vs. +0.5% last.
- Average hourly earnings: +1.1% vs. +1.2% last
Technically, the NZDUSD is down sharply on the day but has rallied off the lows.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price corrected today to the 38.2% of the move up from the September 23 low (at 0.6644). The low came in at the 0.6650 today. A move below that level will then look toward the 100 day MA (at 0.65867) and the 200 bar MA at the 0.6589. That area, will be a key level to eye off a weaker number. A move below will target 0.6566 which is the 50% of the move up.
On the topside, the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart comes in at the 0.6755. Above that, topside trend line comes in at 0.6766. A move above those levels (stronger number) will have traders targeting the 0.6824 level.
In Australia, trade balance is expected to come in at -2900M vs -3095M and retail sales are expected to come in at +0.4%
Technically, the AUDUSD moved higher in trading today after the RBA decision, corrected in the NY session to the underside of the broken trend line, and has rallied in NY afternoon trading.
ON the topside, the topside trend line comes in at 0.7213. Above that is the 50% of the move down from the October high at the 0.7221. A break above that opens the upside for further gains with the 0.7259 ( 61.8% retracement) another upside target.
ON the downside, the targets include the broken 38.2% at 0.71835, the 200 hour MA at 0.7171 and the underside of the broken trend line at the 0.7147 (this line was tested and held so it increases in importance).
