The EURUSD is running to the downside and currently trades at 0.9953, after breaking the parity level this time with momentum. The past 2 days have seen the price hold support against the level. Option relating buying may have been a larger point. However that dynamic can quickly reversed if the price breaks with momentum. The buyers are now being forced to sell helped by option hedging.
Fast-break the other way.
Looking at the hourly chart, a trendline connecting recent lows cuts across near 0.9913 currently. With the price trading at the lowest level since December 2002, that level represents the closest support target now. It would take a move back above the parity level to give sellers some cause for pause (a failed break), but it will only be the first step.
Meanwhile,
- oil prices are getting hammered as well. The futures currently trade at $91.11 which is down over $5 on the day.
- Gold is down $35 and trades below the $1700 level for the 1st time since August 2021 when the price low reached $1684.05 (the next target). The current price is trading at $1698.46.
- The Dow is down -500 points. The S&P is down 60 points or -1.58%. The NASDAQ is down -160 points or -1.43%
- In the US debt market, to year yields are trading at 3.23%, up 7.1 basis point. The 10 year yield is up about 5 basis points at 2.985%. The 2 – 10 year spread is trading at -25 basis points as investors fear the prospects of an over tightening Fed needed to slow inflation that ultimately leads to a hard landing in recession in the US
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley CL says a deep and dramatic recession is unlikely in the US and that macroeconomic environment is complicated but not as bad as in at 2008.
JP Morgan CEO Dimon said:
- he is not seen cracks in credit, but maybe early warning signs in cash buffers shrinking for lower income segments
- sees a range of scenarios for economy
- going through a storm gives us opportunities
- percent of bridge loan book came down substantially and took write-downs on a couple of bridge loans
Both Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan reported disappointing earnings. JPM stock price is down -4.32% while Morgan Stanley stock price is down -2.55%.