The GBPJPY is waffling mostly between the 100 hour MA below at 165.21 and the 200 hour MA above at 166.15 over the last two trading days. The current price is in the middle of that range at 165.63 as traders ponder the next move and shove.
On the topside, the 200 hour MA has seen a number of little breaks. There are 9 small breaks above the 200 hour MA line, but each one fell short of the 38.2% at 166.487 of the move down from the end of October high. There were only 3 hourly bars that closed above the MA line, before rotating lower.
On the downside, yesterday there was a intraday break below the 100 hour MA (blue line at 165.21 currently) that also failed quickly (no closes below the MA line). Today's low barely broke the MA line before bouncing.
So buyers and sellers trade the range and maybe more importantly for traders, are awaiting the next shove that sends the pair trending higher or lower.
When the market consolidates like it is doing, the buyers and sellers are unsure of the next move in the short term. Overall, the sellers probably have the advantage. The breaks above the 200 are small and the price can't get above the 38.2% minimum retracement. However, the buyers have the 100 hour MA hold as the "ace" in their hand that gives them the go-ahead to "see the flop" (i.e. if they can pull a break above the 200 hour MA).
