The NZDUSD peaked in the Asian session at 0.6132 before rotating back to the downside. The run lower followed the overall USD buying and in the process reached a new cycle low at 0.6060 before bouncing higher over the last few hours of trading. The Waller comments led to a spike to the upside that got near the highs for the day. The high price reached 0.6129, just short of the 0.61325 for the day. The price also fell just short of the falling 100 hour moving average at 0.61323.
Getting above the 100 hour moving average would be needed to increase the bullish bias. However the 200 hour moving average at 0.61542 is also a topside hurdles that has proven to be more troublesome over the last few weeks of trading. On Friday of last week, the price briefly moved above that level only to fall back in the next hourly bar. Yesterday the price also moved above the level and failed quickly.
As a result getting above 0.61542 would be needed to be broken and stay broken for the buyers to finally say they are in the ballgame and winning some as well. Absent that, and the NZDUSD buyers may have the lead in the 6 inning, but still lose by the end of the 9th.
Fundamentally, RBNZ raise rates by 50 basis points as expected this week. Although, the hike gave the pair a brief reprieve to the upside, the selling returned pushing the price back down. Concerned about China Covid and risk off sentiment keeps the pair under pressure. Also the lower currency is also a inflationary risk.
The relief would likely need to come from USD weakness vs NZD strength. The technicals will help tell that story if it is told.