A day after there were reports of a Russian missile landing in Poland and killing two, the new report is that it was actually a stray Ukrainian missile aimed at Russian missiles that missed. As a result, the EUR breathed a sigh of relief (it still is not great that a war is being staged on the borders), and the EUR is the strongest of the major currencies to start the North American session. The JPY is the weakest as it falls most vs the EUR, CHF and GBP. The USD is lower as well.
In the UK inflation continued to race higher as the cost of energy - despite ceilings put in place - pushed the CPI to 11.1% YoY above the 10.7% estimate. The BOE expects a recession for up to 2 year if the rate trajectory continues and it seems it will need to continue. The GBP is mostly higher (down vs the EUR, and unchanged vs the CHF, but higher vs the rest of the majors).
The US retail sales will be released in the US with the expectations that the retail sales will outpace the price gains this month with a gain of 1.0%. The core retail sales are also expected to outpace CPI inflation with a 0.5% rise. That would keep the Fed on the path to MORE restrictive policy, which is what Fed officials have mapped out. The Fed Chair has said that the terminal rate will be higher than the Dot plot outlined at the September meeting. The next Fed meeting will be on December 13-14 - less than one month away now - with a slowing of hike to 50 basis points (from 75 basis points over the last 4 meetings). The caveat is there is one more jobs report (December 2) and one more CPI (December 13 the day before the rate announcement) a possible deal breaker.
Former Pres. Trump, announced he would enter the race for the 2024 nomination for President. How will that all play out has the GOP facing a "come to Jesus" moment. Will the GOP rally behind the former President or will a rival contender come in with a different view that forces the former President to step aside. How different can that candidate be that would avoid a split in the party? Lets see....November 2024 is a few weeks short of 2 years away on November 5, 2024. Buckle up. It'll be a long ride.
US stocks are near unchanged today. Yields are lower.
A snapshot of the other markets are showing:
- spot gold is near unchanged at $1779.10.
- Spot silver is up $0.24 or 1.12% at $21.79
- crude oil is trading at $86.41 after settling the day yesterday at $86.92
- Bitcoin is trading at $16,558. That's down around $320 on the day
in the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are marginally lower after gains yesterday:
- Dow industrial average is down -31 points after yesterdays at 56.22 point rise
- S&P index is down 4 points after yesterdays 34.48 point rise
- NASDAQ index is down 18 points after yesterdays 162.19 point rise
in the European equity markets, the major indices are trading lower:
- German DAX -1.09%
- France's CAC -0.69%
- UK's FTSE 100 -0.23%
- Spain's Ibex -1.27%
- Italy's FTSE MIB -0.54%
The US debt market, yields are trading lower:
In the European debt the market the benchmark 10 year yields are lower:
