As the North American session
As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest of the major currencies. The JPY is the weakest a day after they hiked rates for the first time in 17 years. Yesterday the JPY was also the weakest.
The USDJPY has reached a new high today of 151.76. That is within 15 pips of the 2023 high price at 151.91. The 2022 high price reached 151.945 just above that high. Getting about both would have the USDJPY trading at the highest level since 1990.
Meanwhile at 2 PM ET, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged. Although the Fed will be focused on the dot plot which had the Fed cutting rates 3 time at the last time the survey of Fed officials was taken, Adam points out that although the dot plot might get the initial reaction as it is the most tangible view of Fed officials outlook at this point in time, it is "how willing and eager he is to cut rates if/when the data begins to deteriorate". Most Fed officials argue that policy is restrictive and needs to be cut, the Fed just has not gotten the all-clear as inflation is still closer to 3% than 2%.
Meanwhile, the DXY (dollar index), has moved up from a low of 102.35 to 104.10 (or 1.7%) since the recent bottom on March 8. The US 2-year yield is up 27 basis points over that time period and the 10-year is up 25 basis points and tested the high yield for 2024 yesterday.
In the UK today, the CPI data came in lower than expected at 3.4% vs 3.5% expected. The previous month was up at 4.0%. Core CPI also moved lower with the yield moving down from 5.1% to 4.5%. That news has helped to weaken the GBP vs the USD. However, it is still higher vs the JPY and modestly against most other major currencies in the morning snapshot.
A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows:
- Crude oil is trading down $-0.82 or -0.99% at $81.92. At this time yesterday, the price was at $82.09
- Gold is trading down down $-3.90 or -0.19% at $2153.40. At this time yesterday, the price was at $2156.32
- Silver is trading down six cents or -0.27% at $24.82. At this time yesterday, the price was at $24.93
- Bitcoin currently trades at $63,711. The low price today reached $60,760 (the lowest level since March 5) before rebounding. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $63,525. The all time high price reached last week reached $73,794. From the high to the low today, the digital currency fell -17.66%
In the premarket, the major indices are trading mixed now.
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a loss of -32 points. Yesterday the index rose 320.33 points or +0.83% at 39110.77
- S&P futures are implying a gain of 2.24 points. Yesterday, the index rose 29.09 points or 0.56% at 5178.52
- Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 50 points. Yesterday, the index rose 63.34 points or 0.39% at 16166.79
In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading mostly lower.
- German DAX, 0.28%
- France CAC , -0.50%
- UK FTSE 100, -0.13%
- Spain's Ibex, -0.06%
- Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.10% (delayed by 10 minutes).
Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly going:
- Japan's Nikkei 225, +0.66%
- China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.55%
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +0.08%
- Australia S&P/ASX index, -0.10%
Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower:
- 2-year yield 4.681%, -1.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.717%
- 5-year yield 4.288% -1.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.339%
- 10-year yield 4.284% -1.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.324%
- 30-year yield 4.434% -0.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.453%
- The 2-10 year spread is at -39.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -39.3 basis points
- The 2-30 year spread is at -24.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -26.5 basis points
European benchmark 10-year yields are mostly lower:
