The USDCAD moved and closed below the 100 day moving average on March 31, and closed below the moving average for six consecutive days. Having said that, the low price was reached on April 4 at 1.34057, but stalled well ahead of the 200 day moving average target at 1.33747. The price has been up for five consecutive days since bottoming. The move back above the 100 day moving average disappoints the sellers.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the price rise has taken the price back toward a swing area between 1.3353 and 1.33638. Between that area is the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the March 24 high at 1.35574. It would take a move above this area to increase the bullish bias. Absent that and the correction is more of a plain-vanilla variety.
A move back below the 100 day moving averages needed to give the sellers against the 38.2% retracement and swing area more confidence.
