The USDCAD fell back below its 100 and 200 hour moving averages yesterday and also a mid range swing area (see all the blue circle numbers).
The low price yesterday however did stall against the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the January 19 low at 1.26628.
The subsequent move to the upside did see the price extend above both the 100 and 200 hour moving averages, and the Asian session high on the dollar spike to the upside was quickly reversed. Since then, the price has remained below that swing area and moving averages for most of the North American and London session.
The last 16 trading days has seen the price move up and down within a confined trading range. Being below the moving averages and the mid area swing area tilt the bias more to the downside. It would take a move above 1.2725 (the high of the swing area), to shift the bias more to the upside.
On the downside, the 38.2% at 1.26628, the swing area between 1.2649 to 1.2656, and the extreme low from the ECB day last week at 1.2635 would be the next downside targets. The 100 day MA and the 50% of the move up from the January 19 low at 1.26217 area is another key target on further downside momentum today and going forward.