US interest rates have risen sharply in today's trading, contributing to a rebound in the USDJPY. The two-year yield has increased by around 16 basis points, while the 10-year yield is up approximately 10 basis points. From a technical standpoint, the USDJPY initially moved up to test its 100-hour moving average (blue line). Sellers initially leaned against this level, causing a correction before regrouping and pushing the price above the moving average. The 100-hour moving average is currently at 131.333.
Today's high price has extended into a swing area dating back to March 16 (see red numbered circles) but has not yet reached or breached the declining 200-hour moving average (green line) at 131.90. The last time the USDJPY closed above its 200-hour moving average was on March 10, when the average was at 136.42. Since then, the price has fallen around 677 pips over 10 trading days. The price bottomed on Friday and has since rebounded about 210 pips from the low to today's high.
However, sellers remain in control until the price breaks above the 200-hour moving average. If the 100-hour moving average is decisively broken to the downside, we could witness a similar situation to last week when the 100-hour moving average was broken, but sellers leaned ahead of the 200-hour moving average. On the rebreak of the 100 hour MA, buyers quickly turned to sellers.
Traders should be aware. Watch that 100 hour MA . It's key in the short term for buyers looking for more upside, and sellers against the 200 hour MA above.