The Federal Reserve's FOMC meet on 19 June 2019. I have a few snippets of what to expect to come.
Getting the ball rolling:
Bank of America / Merrill Lynch
- US market "fully committed to a July cut"
And so recommend considering the opposite
- "hedges for a positive G-20 and a hawkish Fed surprise"
Citing low expectations, one-sided positioning
- "any positive headline in relation to the trade negotiation could see a pop in yields"
UBS
- Fed outlook pricing "remains skewed quite dovishly"
- UBS add that this despite Q2 economic data "on a solid footing"
- market-implied long-run real rates appear too high
- it takes fewer FOMC members to lower 2020 and long-run median fed funds forecasts than to lower the 2019 median to a cut
Oh, these earlier also: