Technical Analysis

US 10-year yields rise above the February high

That's trouble US 10-year yields are up 4.5 bps to 2.955%. That's fractionally above the February high and sure to cause increasing jitters in broader markets.

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SP Thu 19 Apr

Stocks end the session lower. S&P back below 100 day MA.

Nasdaq down -0.78% The US major stock indices are closing lower with the tech heavy Nasdaq suffering the most. The chips stocks did not do well today as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing - a key to partner to Apple and Nvidia - lower their revenue forecast for the 2nd quarter. Morgan Stanley said apples iPhone was the reason for the poor guidance.

NICKEL Thu 19 Apr

Nickel explodes to the best levels since 2014. Aluminum up 30% this month

Metals have been on fire since the latest Russian sanctions Nothing is hotter than nickel at the moment. The industrial metal is up 15% since the start of the month and 7% today.


When life imitates comedy, you end up with a vomiting camel

There's always someone who takes the joke seriously Drawing funny things on technical analysis charts is, well, funny. Forget trendlines and moving averages, you need the occasional dinosaur:

USDJPY Thu 19 Apr

USDJPY moves above the 100 hour MA

Has recent swing highs to contend with at 107.38 The USDJPY have moved above the 100 hour MA at 107.244 and ran a little. This is similar to the move seen yesterday that ended up stalling at the swing high from Monday's trading at 107.383 (see red circles).   We currently trade at 107.34 - just short of that ceiling.

GBPUSD Wed 18 Apr

The GBPUSD is back below 38.2%, 200 hour MA swing level. Can it stay below?

Not running but staying below... The GBPUSD tumbled in trading yesterday on the back of technical breaks and some weaker than expected inflation data. The last 7 trading hours, has seen the price below the 200 hour MA. That MA comes in at 1.42153 (and rising a bit).  The 38.2% of the April range comes 1.4219. That area is close risk for shorts looking for more downside in the pair.   

NZDUSD Wed 18 Apr

NZ CPI due out shortly.

Expectatons is for 1Q CPI to rise 0.4% The YoY CPI is expected to rise 1.1%.  The report will be released at 2245 GMT.

FOREX Wed 18 Apr

Trade ideas thread - Thursday 19 April 2018

Good mornnig, afternoon, evening.  If you have an idea for your favorite trade today, feel free to jump right in and share.   Some ideas: What are some of your ideas?

FOREX Wed 18 Apr

Eamonn outlined the Aussie employment expectations, but what about the technical levels?

Technical levels in play and why through the Australia employment report Eamonn outlined the expectations for the Australian unemployment report out at 0130 GMT today.  You can read all about it . 

EURCHF Wed 18 Apr

It may be a historic anniversary, but EURCHF is within pips of a historic level

EURCHF moves closer to the 1.2000 level Adam surprise me by reminding me it was my 7 year anniversary (really?).  It goes to show how time flies by when you are having fun.

USDJPY Wed 18 Apr

Dollar little changed after the Beige Book

A few pips here and there after the report The Fed's Beige Book had little impact on the USD. USDJPY The USDJPY on the hourly chart trades around the midpoint of the 10 day trading range at 107.192. The 100 hour MA is above that at 107.245. The 200 hour MA is below at 107.118.  The price is trading at 107.20. The price is still stuck in the mud. 

USDCAD Wed 18 Apr

USD/CAD has second thoughts ahead of Poloz press conference

USD/CAD back below 1.2600 USD/CAD jumped nearly a full cent on the Bank of Canada decision to leave interest rates unchanged. No move was mostly expected but OIS pricing showed about a 20% chance of a move so the kneejerk higher was understandable.

USDCAD Wed 18 Apr

USD/CAD touches a one-week high after BOC decision

USD/CAD rises above 1.2625 Poloz will hold a press conference at 11:15 am ET.


Goldman Sachs on the strong resistance ahead for USD/JPY (Elliot Wave chart)

ArticleBody Goldman Sachs technical analysis piece (Elliot Wave) on the yen This is from a weekend GS note, but its a longer-term look at the yen so still may be of interest


Japan Nikkei gets an early boost higher off the better US markets

Up 1.17% on the day Japan's Nikkei is up 266 points or 1.22% in early trading. The move higher comes on the heels of some lofty gains in the US. The Nasdaq rose by 1.74%. The S&P rose by 1.07% and closed above its 100 day MA at the 2700.47 level.  

USDJPY Wed 18 Apr

USDJPY moves up to test hourly MAs

Pair moves toward 100 hour MA , the USDJPY traded up and down yesterday but failed on the break above the 100 hour MA.  As posted earlier The price in the early Asian session has moved higher and in the process is back testing the MA levels. The 200 hour MA is at 107.12. The 100 hour MA is at 107.19.   The 50% midpoint of the non trending range over the last 9 trading days is also at 107.19.   Key bias level for traders.  

NZDUSD Tue 17 Apr

The NZDUSD sitting on the trading fence technically

Traders are trying to make up their minds The NZDUSD in US trading, fell below the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below) and an upward sloping trend line. That should have sent the price lower, but momentum faded and the price rotated back higher (see red shaded area). 

USDJPY Tue 17 Apr

USDJPY treads water as Trump and Abe meet

...and play golf . The technical bias a little more bearish below the 100 and 200 hour MAs Pres. Trump and Japan PM Abe are meeting at Trump's Mar-a-Lago in Florida. 

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