Session Wraps - Major Forex Headlines wrapped up by trading session

Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex news for NY trading on July 19, 2018

In other markets:

  • Spot gold is ending down $-3.93 or -.33% at $1223.50. The price of gold traded down to a new move low $1211.32 on the back of the stronger dollar. Trumps comments on the USD and the Fed, helped to reverse the move.  The price remains below the $1234 level which is the 200 week MA (see post here). 
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading at $69.58 up $.82 or 1.19%. The price rebounded after reports that Saudi Arabia was unlikely to increase production over the next few months. 
  • Bitcoin is trading up $86 and $7421. The digital currency remains below its 200 day moving average at $7613.60.  Staying below keeps the bears happy. A move above should lead to more of the momentum
In the European and US stock markets today, most of the deceased closed lower. The exceptions are the Canada S&P/TSX composite index and the UK FTSE 100.  The biggest loser was the German DAX -0.62%. The US major indices all traded in the red for the entire day. The doubt was the weakest at -0.53% on the day.

In the US that market, yields were lower with the 5 year having the largest decline. The 2-10s spread came in by 0.8 bps to 25.1 bps.   

European 10 year yields were near unchanged or  lower at the close of their trading day. The UK 10 year moved the most (down -4.1 bps) after weaker retail sales today).

A review of the economic releases today saw the US initial employment claims come in at the lowest level since December 1969 (I was alive then. Adam was most definitely not).  The level came in at 207K vs 220K estimate. Employment is not a problem in the US. Having skilled labor is the problem. To address that, Pres Trump announced a "Pledge to Workers" program (spearheaded by his daughter Ivanka), that involves US corporations signing a pledge to retrain workers for the "new economy".  Of course it is easier said then done, but needed.

Also better than expected was the Philly Fed index which came in at 25.7 vs 21.5 estimate.  The index erased some of the large decline last month. 

In other US data, the Leading index increased by 0.5% vs 0.4% expected.  The index has not been negative since May 2016. So what's all the fuss about the upcoming recession?

The better data in the US sent the dollar higher in early trading.  The EURUSD reached a low of 1.1574 - making new month lows (taking out the July 2 low at 1.15906). The GBPUSD fell to 1.29656. The USDJPY rose toward its key 200 week moving average at 113.23 (the high reached 113.17. 

Momentum could not be sustained, a modest correction began

The corrective move was controlled until the time when parts of an exclusive interview with Pres. Trump was aired by CNBC.  In the interview, Trump complained about the dollar being too low vs the EUR and the yuan.  He also said he was not happy about the Fed raising rates, lamenting that he does all this work to stimulate the economy, only to have the Fed tighten rates. 

Those comments sent the dollar tumbling lower.

The EURUSD moved from a  low of 1.1574 to a high of 1.1677. The pair stalled between the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 1.1663 and 1.1683.   The momentum stalled and the price is settling at 1.1641.


The GBPUSD moved from 1.2965 to a NY session high at 1.3049. Like the EURUSD it rotated back toward the middle of the range at 1.3009. That level also happened to be the swing low from yesterday. In the new day it might be a swing level for bulls and bear (at least intraday). 


The USDJPY moved from its high of 113.17 (just below the 200 week MA target) to a low of 112.04.  The low did take the price below the 200 hour MA for the first time since July 9th, but the run was short lived and the price rebounded and trades at 112.40 at the close.  

Overall for the currencies today, the JPY is ending as the strongest currency, while the risk off currencies like the NZD, AUD and CAD were the weakest. 


 

The volatility ranges were also extended as a result of the swings.  


For the USD, the currency was still mostly higher with gains vs the NZD, AUD, CAD and GBP, and declines vs the JPY. Versus the EUR and the CHF, the greenback was virtually unchanged on the day after swings higher and lower.

It is Friday now, so wishing the followers in the Far East a happy and safe weekend. 


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Author: Justin Low

Author: Justin Low
5

Forex news from the European trading session - 19 July 2018

Headlines:

Markets:

  • USD leads, NZD lags behind on the day
  • European equities lower, losses led by mining stocks
  • Gold down 0.93% to $1,216.04
  • WTI crude down 1.29% to $67.87
  • US 10-year yields up 2.2 bps to 2.891%
  • Bitcoin up 0.70% to $7,388


It's another session that is all about the greenback once again, with dollar strength the major theme in trading today. Are we set for the pump and dump when US traders come in like we saw yesterday? It sure feels like a case of déjà vu as the highs for the dollar index stalls at 95.50 today with it trading at 95.44 currently.

The session started off with a bit of stagnant price action across the board, but that soon evolved into a mild bid for the dollar and then a second wave of bids sent the dollar higher with EUR/USD slowly making its way towards 1.1600 from earlier levels around 1.1640 at the start.

Then, we had the UK retail sales report which missed estimates and sent cable lower from 1.3020 to a low of 1.2983 before it recovered to about 1.3010 levels. But thereafter, the dollar gathered further tailwind and pushed higher across the board with EUR/USD breaching below the 1.1600 level and the dollar index hitting highs for the day.

The move also saw the offshore yuan fall to its weakest levels in more than a year against the greenback.

So, everything sure sounds like a recap of yesterday's trading session no? All you have to do is replace the UK retail sales report with the inflation report. So, will we see the dollar hold on to its gains? That will be the ultimate question moving forward.

Looking at individual currency pairs, EUR/USD has just been on a constant track lower as the dollar advanced on the day making its way from 1.1640 to a low of 1.1595 before bouncing a little to trade near the 1.1600 handle now.

USD/JPY was more subdued with the pair trading around 112.80 levels at the start of the session before pushing to a high of 113.08 as the dollar flexed its muscles and now trades near the 113.00 handle.

GBP/USD was more exciting with key UK data adding some volatility to the mix, with the pair trading around 1.3060 levels at the start of the session before falling to a low of 1.3020 ahead of the retail sales report. The report missed expectations but the details weren't that bad, but even so cable fell to a low of 1.2983 before recovering some losses to 1.3010 levels. But the dollar's second wind sees the pair fall back below the 1.3000 handle and it has stayed there since.

Commodity currencies were a more straightforward trade falling across the board against the dollar in pretty direct trading. AUD/USD started the session higher with the aussie gaining on the back of the upbeat employment report in the Asian session, but soon faltered as the dollar extended higher and the same goes for the loonie and the kiwi as well.


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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
3

Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Thursday 19 July 2018

Japan:

Australia::

More:

The devaluation of the RMB continues, its starting to look more and more like 2015. The PBOC set the onshore reference rate above 6.7 today, SAFE followed up with comments not expressing too much concern at all on the currency; and traders took that as a cue to invite the CNH to the woodshed.

You know what happens next. Offshore yuan was smacked much lower, as I update USD/CNH has cracked above 6.77 (and by the time I get the chart in its back under...). The PBOC set the onshore rate each day and on the face of it (to me at least) this is a clear devaluation policy in action. The effect of a lower yuan (not just against the USD, either, the yuan against its 'basket' has been falling also) is to push up prices of goods brought into China. The PBOC response could well be read as a response to Trump's tariffs and threats of more (I am reading it that way anyway).

This ain't over, not by a long shot.



So far today, no angry tweets from you know who. 'Risk' has thus shrugged off the yuan move. How much longer can that go on?

Other news. The biggie was the Australian employment report, which came in at a huge, huge beat on expectations for jobs growth. AUD/USD was marked higher by around half a big figure and since then has been subdued. We await UK time zone for a bigger response.

Also today was some news and data from Japan. Trade data showed a miss on estimates for exports (and imports). Exports actually declined m/m.

Also from Japan, the Bank of Japan 'tapered' their JGB purchases (see bullets above) again today. Yen movement has been subdued. USD/JPY is down 15-odd points for the session.

EUR, CHF, GBP, CAD, even NZD; all quietly range bound.

Still to come:


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Author: Adam Button

Author: Adam Button

Forex news for North American trade on July 18, 2018:

Markets:

  • Gold flat at $1227
  • WTI crude up 81-cents to $68.88
  • US 10-year yields up 1.6 bps to 2.88%
  • S&P 500 up 6 points to 2815
  • NZD leads, GBP lags

The US dollar was strong in Asia and Europe but started to sag as North America rolled in. Part of that was a soft housing starts report but the bulk was Powell as he made comments with a dovish tinge about inflation risks to the downside and about the Fed's Treasury holdings.

Early in the session, China talked about retaliating for US tariffs and that sent USD/JPY quickly down to 112.71 from 112.95 but it slowly climbed back to 112.87 later.

EUR/USD touched 1.1602 in Europe but found bids at the figure and climbed to 1.1660 shortly after the European close.

Cable was beaten up on the inflation report and hit an 8-month low at 1.3010 but bids at the figure meant the low came minutes after the report. It was steadily higher from there with a late report on an Article 50 extension helping it to 1.3070.

The commodity currencies were the story late in the day as the climbed on a rebound in metals and oil. USD/CAD started at 1.3250 and sank nearly a full cent to 1.3165 with no real domestic news to report.

AUD/USD added 50 pips from the lows to hit 0.7400.

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