Session Wraps - Major Forex Headlines wrapped up by trading session

GMTAuthor: Adam Button

11

Forex news for North American trading on September 21, 2018:

Markets:

  • Gold down $9 to $1198
  • WTI crude up 53-cents to $70.84
  • S&P 500 flat at 2930, up 0.9% on the week
  • US 10-year yields flat at 3.06%
  • Ripple jumps 77% in a day, passes Ethereum as second-largest cryptocurrency
  • CHF leads, GBP lags
  • On the week, NZD leads, JPY lags

When you take a look at the net changes on the day it's bland except for the huge move in sterling, which was its largest fall in months. It started yesterday with Macron's criticisms of Brexit and escalated with some over-the-top UK press coverage and the mood deeply soured. For some reason May tried to battle back but her effort couldn't stop the bleeding. It was a one-way move down to 1.3056 from 1.3287 with about half coming after New York arrived. After the flurry of selling early, cable flattened right out.

EUR/USD came under some selling pressure as the US dollar found a modest bid, in part on the Brexit worries. It tracked down to 1.1733 from 1.1803 with the final 30 pips coming as New York arrived. It chopped from there, bouncing to 1.1765 then back near the lows before finishing near 1.1755.

USD/JPY chopped lower, losing about 20 pips in what was basically a reflection of the risk trade. Stocks had been higher then finished flat while bonds were quiet.

USD/CAD was a focus with some top tier data on the agenda. The headlines matched estimates but the underlying numbers were a tad stronger. USD/CAD reacted strongly in a quick move down to 1.2887 where it ran into support from Thursday's low. It bounced as high as 1.2942 on reports the White House is unhappy with NAFTA and prepared to fly solo. Ultimately, USD/CAD finished at 1.2920, up slightly on the day.

NZD and AUD finished the day unchanged. Some consolidation is a victory after climbing for four days to start the week.

Have a great weekend.

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GMTAuthor: Giles Coghlan

3

Brexit headlines and risk on sentiment



Markets:

  • Gold down -0.17% at 1205.24
  • WTI down 0.45% at 70.80
  • Copper up 2.33% at 278.45 (Copper feeling the global growth love)
  • FTSE 100 up 1.10% at 7448.39
  • FTSE MIB up 0.79% at 167.85


The GBP fell from the open as Brexit woe just weighed on the GBP the whole session. Currently down over -0.50% it is worth keeping your eye on the headlines as there were some rumours that Theresa May had a 'big announcement' to make. That rumour was quickly denied but May is running out of support. Nicola Sturgeon was quick to put the boot in and throw fuel on the fire urging Theresa May to drop her Chequers plan. May is fast running out of options, but she is dogged and determined and if anyone could stick it out I would say she could. However, at what point does her position become impossible. It must be quite close now as she is running out of supporters. 

cough, cough I have an announcement to make. Oh actually, scrap that - I'll carry on with the job..


The session started on a good note with vibes of Global growth and a ,let's ignore Trump's tariff tune, coming from the Asian Equites. The Nikkei was up 0.82%m Hang Seng up 1.73% and the Shanghai index a decent 2.50%. Trade war? what trade war. Nothing to see here move along please. Once again, fading President Trump's tweets, seems to be the sensible option. Sometime you feel that the world is working around Donald Trump.

The EUR/USD was weighed down by a mix of eurozone data from France, Germany and a compiled eurozone release. Oil broke away from the 50EMA intraday 15 minute chart and is sat in the middle of the range, concerns over Iran's supply is keeping it bid, at least until Trump wakes up and starts tweeting about the price of Oil

Coming up in the next session we have CPI data and retail sales out of Canada as the main events of the session, bar any 'big news' from you know who.

Been a pleasure serving you great bunch and I hope you all have a good weekend. I have just found out that my house purchase has gone through, so the mobile banking problems didn't impact my mortgage application. Well, there a relief. 


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GMTAuthor: Eamonn Sheridan

Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Friday 21 September 2018 

The yen was the mover, albeit only small, in Asia today. Sentiment in the market was said to be leaning risk on (more on this is a moment) sending a bit of flow out yen. USD/JPY and in turn yen crosses are little higher on the session.


The risk on, if that's what it was, seemed confined largely to stocks though with very little movement on currencies. EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD have barely moved. Oh, the HKD did have a sharp jump and shorts were squeezed. 

Gold popped above 1208 on a small stop loss run.

Just on the Australian dollar, check out a longer term chart and have a look at the area around 0.73. Price appears to be on approach to a down trending line and it could well be sticky just above the figure.

Data flow today - the focus was Japanese CPI (August) although the release saw yen barely move. Core is still missing target, of course. The BOJ trimmed its purchase of JGBs today, the very quiet, very tiny stealth taper tip toes along.


Still to come:


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GMTAuthor: Greg Michalowski

Forex news for NY trading on September 20, 2018


In other markets:

  • Spot gold moved marginally higher on the back of the weaker dollar. The spot price moved up $3.52 or 0.30% at $1207.60
  • WTI crude oil fell $0.32% to $70.80. The October contract settled today (last day of trading).  Tomorrow the November contract will be the front contract. It settled today at $70.32 
  • The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase is trading near unchanged level at $6423 on the Coinbase exchange.  The high reached $6445.55. The low extended to $6365.  Technically, the price low yesterday stalled at the September low, bottomed and squeezed to a topside trend line (see green circle 3) . Since then, the price has waffled in a narrow range, but above the 100 and 200 hour MAs at $6365 and $6413 respectively.  In the new trading day, those MAs will continue to be a barometer for bulls and bears. Stay above is move bullish. Move below is more bearish.


One of the big financial stories of the day is the S&P and Dow trading and closing at new record highs. For the Dow, the prior high was back January 26th.   The S&P just reached it's last high on August 29th. Today each gapped higher on the open and stayed bid.  The Nasdaq record is up at 8133.19.  The price is still 105 points from the record level. 

The final numbers saw the:
  • S&P close at 2930.87 up 22.92 points or 0.79%
  • Nasdaq closed at 8028.23 up 78.197 points or 0.98%
  • Dow closed at 26657, up 251 points or 0.95%
In the European market, they too had strong gains. Below is a summary of the % changes of the major European and NA indices today. There was not a lot of activity below the 0% line in major indices:


In the US debt market, the yields are ending the session mixed with a flatter yield curve. Below are ranges and changes. The 2-10 year spread fell 0.7 bps to 26.52.  


Yields in the US 10 year are getting more comfortable above the 3% level.  In the process, the yield is also moving closer to the next target at the May 2018 high of 3.1261%.  Today, the yield traded to a high of 3.0943. The low reached 3.0552%.  

For what it is worth, Goldman's Jan Hatzius sees the Fed being more comfortable taking the rate above the neutral rate of 2.75%-3.00%.  The treasury yields push higher seems to suggest the debt market might be buying into that thinking. 


While the stocks soared, the dollar and JPY got hit today (they were the weakest). The market seems to be thinking that maybe global growth won't be all that bad,
  • That China and US trade tensions will work toward a deal;,
  • That Brexit gets done without a "no-deal" uncertainty. 
  • That NAFTA even works out.   
ECB's Praet spoke to better days ahead by saying "Eurozone economy continues to expand at above-potential rate.". 

The currency flows, bond market and stocks were in agreement today. The NZD was also the strongest currency which speaks to a "risk on" idea.    


Technically for some of the pairs into the new day:
  • The EURUSD ran away from the 100 day MA at 1.16609 level and closed at the high for the day at 1.1780. The 38.2% of the 2018 trading range comes in at 1.17795. A move above would be more bullish and would target the June high at 1.1850 over time on more momentum.  
  • The GBPUSD also rallied away from its 100 day MA at 1.3155 today and like the EURUSD, got close to the 38.2% of its 2018 trading range at 1.33163. The price stalled today at 1.3298 and backed off toward support at 1.32205 (low reached 1.3226). The pair closed up at 1.3268 between the support at 1.3220 and the resistance at 1.3316.  Those levels will help define the range and the bias (on breaks).
  • The USDJPY is trading in the range that defined the extreme for the pair back in July.   That extreme is from 112.146 (which was the August 1 high) and the 2018 high at 113.17. The pair closed at 112.45.  The buyer are more in control above the 112.146.  I look for the 113.00-113.17 to be a magnate for the price action now.
  • The NZDUSD pushed topside resistance on the daily and hourly chart toward the close and moved back down. You can read the analysis HERE. If "the global story" is getting less worrisome, the correction off the high should not be too dramatic.  

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