Session Wraps - Major Forex Headlines wrapped up by trading session

Author: Greg Michalowski
1

Forex news for trading in NY on April 24, 2018.

A snapshot of other markets is showing:

  • Spot gold is up $6.75 or 0.51% at $1331.65.  The price of the precious metal tested the 100 day MA but found buyers against the level once again (see post). 
  • WTI crude oill fell -$0.87 or -1.27% at $67.77. The high price reached another high water mark at $69.38 before reversing lower
  • Bitcoin continues its run higher (see post here). It is trading up $450 at $9378 and looks to close above the 100 day MA at $9176.39. The 200 day MA at $9843.77 is the next key target to get and stay above.  
The data today showed:
  • Home data in the US was stronger. The Case Schiller Home price index rose a greater than expected 0.83% vs 0.68% expected. Later new home sales were also much better at 694K vs 630K.  The same story of low supply continues to drive the market.
  • The Philly Fed Non-manufacturing index came in weaker than last month at 27.6 vs 30.1 last month and some of the sub-indexes showed big declines (CLICK HERE)
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing index followed the Philly trend by falling to -3 vs expectations of 16 (last 15).  The index fell below the 0 level for the first times since September 2016. 
In other fundamental news in the North American session:
  • Trump, Mexico;'s Guarjardo and Canada's Freeland spoke positively about NAFTA, but also warned (in many ways) that it ain't over until it is over. 
  • US Pres. Trump and France's Macron met in Washington and the duo talked about Iran nucllear deal, trade and how well they get along.  Trump would rather deal with France in a bilateral way, but of course the EU might not be supportive of that idea.  There was little impact.
Stocks were the big story for the day.  The Dow fell more than 600 points at one point. The Nasdaq is down more than 2% on concerns about the privacy. Google had great earnings last night after the close, yet is down -5.30%. Amazon is down -4.38%. Facebook is down -4.52% and Netflix is down -4.51%.   Not a good day for the FANGS which also have a lot of data about consumers.  

In the forex market, the USDJPY was the big mover today (along with the JPY crosses).  The JPY pairs were higher earlier but started to wilt with the stocks.  EURJPY, GBPJPY, and CADJPY are all still higher on the day, but the USDJPY is now negative and all of them are well off the highs in the NA session.  

The strongest currency today was the GBP. The weakest was the NZD. 


View More

View Full Article with Comments 1

Author:

Author: Justin Low
1

Forex news from the European trading session - 24 April 2018

Economic data:

Government/Central banks:

Markets:

  • CAD leads barely, NZD lags on the day
  • European equities mixed, but DAX and Eurostoxx with gains
  • Gold up by 0.08% to $1,325.90
  • WTI up by 0.66% to $69.09
  • US 10-year yields flat at 2.972%
  • Bitcoin up by 4.2% to $9,305


There wasn't any broad directional move in European trading today as US 10-year yields traded between 2.96% to 2.97% for the most part, failing to provide the kind of enthusiasm that has helped give the dollar a lift in previous sessions.

The dollar did try to test the waters at the start of the session, but eventually it all fiddled and now we're back to square one again in the market. The changes among the major currencies below highlights what a narrow day it has been:


EUR/USD continues to hug the 100-day MA level @ 1.2210 with any downside move currently kept in check by large option expiries at the 1.2200 today and also on Thursday. If the dollar's upside is facing a pause, the pair looks set to move only when the ECB meets on Thursday.

USD/JPY meanwhile didn't do much in trading today. The pair was lower at the end of the Asian session, and then kept within a range of 108.70 to 108.90 throughout European trading - basically mirroring the subdued range in US yields.

GBP/USD was one of the more active pairs on the session, hitting a low of 1.3918 early on as the dollar gained some momentum before reversing to hit a high of 1.3961 before eventually settling in the current range of 1.3940 to 1.3950 levels.

USD/CAD has been one of the more quiet pairs with the loonie not really subject to weakness against the dollar early on in the session. But that's not to say that it pulled away on the day or anything either. The pair continues to stay between a tight range of 1.2830 to 1.2840 on the day.

It's a similar story to the aussie as AUD/USD trades just above the 0.7600 figure level for the most part today with highs contained around 0.7615. The kiwi is a different story though. After leading losses in the Asian session, it pretty much just stuck to the bottom with NZD/USD falling to a low of 0.7106 earlier before finding a range of 0.7110 to 0.7130 for the most part in trading.

The market isn't really prepared for a dollar correction just yet despite the rise over the last week. And that indicates that this is more of a pause in anticipation for the next move if anything else. At the moment, yields are not providing the catalyst to jump start the dollar today so let's see if the market is patient enough to wait it out or if positions are starting to be cleared ahead of the ECB and BOJ meetings later this week.


View More

View Full Article with Comments 1

Author: Eamonn Sheridan
2

Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 24 April 2018

US Treasury bond yields were a little lower in Asia today, which coincided with a halt in the rising USD. Earlier in the session the big dollar gained more ground, with EUR, AUD, GBP, NZD, CAD, yen, all down a little more since late afternoon US trade. But these all (except one) retraced and as i update the net change on the day is very little indeed.

It was inflation data day in Australia - we only get official CPI 4 times a year. The headline came in under expectations while the two 'core' measures were just a touch above but still at or below the lower bound of the RBA target band (see bullets above for more. In a nutshell, inflation pressures will not be driving any RBA rate hike any time soon). The Australian dollar had fallen on approach to the data release (it had fallen overnight prior to this) broadly in line with the continued USD strength I mentioned above but bounced after the data (again, broadly in line with the retrace mentioned above also.)

NZD/USD was a big loser on the session, while other currencies managed a retrace against the USD the NZD/USD continued heavy. There was little fresh out of NZ today.

Still to come:


View More

View Full Article with Comments 2

Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex news for NY trading on April 23, 2018

In other markets today:

  • Spot gold $-11.56 or -0.87% at $1324
  • WTI crude oil futures rose $.51 or 0.75% to $68.91.  The price was lower earlier in the session but rose to three-year highs as the Saudi-Yemen conflict heats up.  Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen launched an unsuccessful missile attack against Saudi Arabia.  Meanwhile a Saudi kingdom "led force killed a senior leader of the rebel group" according to Bloomberg
  • The US stocks ending the session with modest changes.   The S&P index closed near unchanged.  The NASDAQ fell -0.25%. The Dow fell -0.06%.
  • In the US debt markets yields were a bit higher (but off the high yields of the day).  2 year 2.474%, +1.7 basis points.  Five-year 2.820%, +2.0 basis points.  10 year 2.975%, +1.5 basis points.  30 year 3.143%, -0.2 basis points
In the NY session today, the Chicago Fed national activity index came in bit weaker than expected at 0.10 versus 0.27 expected. That was offset by better-than-expected market services PMI (54.4 versus 54.1 expected).  Existing home sales were also higher than consensus estimates. The annualized rate moved to 5.6 million versus 5.55 million expected.


The dollar was already the strongest of the major currencies at the start of the NY session with gains of 
  • 0.48% vs the JPY 
  • 0.42% vs the EUR and 
  • 0.29% vs the GBP.  
At the close, the greenback was higher by 
  • 0.98 vs the JPY, 
  • 0.66% against the EUR and 
  • 0.42% vs the GBP
It was a strong day for the dollar bulls. 

In addition to some better data, perhaps helping the cause was some short covering in the USD.  As Adam reported late Friday, the weekly commitment of traders showed that the EUR longs hit a record (dollar shorts). The EURUSD has been trending to the downside over the last 5 trading days and hit the lowest level since March 1 today. The GBP has also been long. That too has been a trend like move to the downside over the last 5 trading days. 

Technicals were also in play:

The EURUSD moved below a swing area at 1.2248-601 and continued to step down to the key 100 day MAa at 1.22048. The pair is closing right near that level, and it should be a barometer for the buyers and sellers in the new trading day.

The USDJPY traded to the highest level since February 13th on the break of the 107.895 today. The move above opened the door for more buying.  Helping was perhaps BOJs Kurodas comment saying "I don't know why the Japanese Yen is seen as a safe currency".  I am with you Mr. Kuroda.  Technically, the pair also moved above the 38.2% of the move down from the November high at 108.469.  The 100 day MA at 108.969 will be eyed in the new trading day.  

The GBPUSD continued its fall lower (5 days in a row down). The price stayed below a broken lower trend line at 1.40205 level. The pair chased a lower trend line on the hourly chart at  1.3909 currently. Close resistance comes in at 1.3965-81 now.

The USDCAD traded above the 50% of the move down from the March high and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.2819-26 without much trouble. The high reached 1.2857 (trades at 1.2841 at the end of day).  Stay above the 1.2819-26 is more bullish.  

At the Sohn conference in NYC some trades included:
  • DR Horton
  • Long oil ETF (XOP)/ short Facebook (Gundlach).
  • Long Box.  
  • CVS. Larry Robbins and 
  • Bitcoin is going to $90K (from below $9K now.  Why not?  Bitcoin ended the day -$17 at $8873. The 100 day MA is above at $9216. The 200 day MA is at $9818.   Get above those MAs and the drive toward $90K can start (or at least look a little more bullish).  

View More

View Full Article with Comments

More session wraps for your convenience.