Session Wraps - Major Forex Headlines wrapped up by trading session

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Author: Adam Button
1

Forex news for North American trade on April 20, 2018:

Fedspeak:

Markets:

  • Gold down $9 to $1336
  • WTI crude flat at $68.26
  • S&P 500 down 22 points to 2670
  • US 10-year yields up 4.5 bps to 2.95% -- highest close of the year
  • USD leads, NZD lags

The Canadian dollar was in focus to start the day but the US dollar stole the show later, aided by rising Treasury yields.

Both top-tier Canadian releases were poor with retail sales ex-autos flat compared to +0.4% expected. Core CPI measures were also a touch soft and the loonie was roundly hit. USD/CAD rose to 1.2750 and finished at the lows of the day, in a poor sign for the week ahead.

The rest of the commodity currencies also struggled. AUD/USD extended lower after an outside day on Thursday and finished down 60 pips to 0.7670.

In cable, Carney's BBC interview continued to resonate with many backing away from a May rate hike, or at least getting some seriously-cold feet. Support at 1.4000 has held so far.

EUR/USD whimpered and Draghi had some dovish comments. It was getting smoked and hit 1.2250 but fixing demand drew a line under it and bounced to 1.2288.

If you're looking for more on the ECB, check out the webinar here: Fate of the single currency to be decided by forthcoming ECB meeting

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Friday 20 April 2018

Forex movements in Asia today quietened down after the overnight moves, but some extensions nevertheless.

USD/JPY traded up, popping above 107.70 for a 30-odd point gain on the session. We got Japanese March inflation data today and while the currency move did not seem to be in response to the data release (inflation still way below target) the argument can be made that the data was a clear yen negative - there is no sign from the CPI of an early BOJ exit from easy policy. This graph of CPI is via  Goldman Sachs, they are being generous perhaps by even putting 2% (the target) on the scale:


Apart from the Japan data news flow was very light indeed - further indications of trade tensions still bubbling away (see bullets above).

AUD and NZD both extended a little lower against the USD following their overnight slide. Cable fell hard overnight but sat in pretty much a range here today. EUR/USD also in a smallish range while the CHF lost a few pips against the USD during the session here. SNB Chair Jordan was interviewed on Bloomberg TV and he is not trying to out the brakes on CHF depreciation (again, bullets above)

Still to come today:

To come next week:

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Forex news for NY trading on April 19, 2018

A snapshot of other markets near the end of the NY session is showing:

  • Spot gold down $3.13 or -0.23% at $1346
  • WTI crude oil futures fell $.32 or -0.47% to $68.15
  • Bitcoin is trading of $53 to $8237. The high reached $8300 while the lower extended to $8101 in a relatively narrow trading range day
In the US stock market today the major indices were lower:
  • The S&P index fell -0.57%
  • The NASDAQ composite index fell -0.78%
  • The Dow industrial average fell -0.34%
In the US that market yields were higher, and the yield curve steepened:
  • 2- year 2.427%, unchanged
  • 5 year 2.756%, +2.6 basis points
  • 10 year 2.911%, +3.9 basis points
  • 30 year 3.101%, +4.1 basis points
The USD was the strongest currency today but the gains were largely against the GBP, NZD and the AUD.  The GBP was the weakest currency.


The GBPUSD was the runaway weakest currency pair (0.85% change on the day). In the NY afternoon session, the BOEs Carney said "I don't want to get too focused on the precise timing of the next hike", and he started to fret about the mixed economic data. 

The market had penciled in a hike for the May meeting.  Some of that enthusiasm was taken away on the back of  his comments.  You can read the main headlines HERE

The GBPUSD had a near 180 pip trading range, far surpassing it's 22 day average range by about 75 pips.  It is ending down about 121 pips on the day. 

The GBPJPY was also hurt by the comments. It fell -112 pips on the day and also had an oversized range vs the norm. 

 The NZD and the AUD were also week today, and pretty much mimicked each other as well. They each fell vs. the USD, EUR, JPY, CHF, and CAD, rose vs the GBP and was unchanged vs each other.  Inflation data out of NZD showed YoY inflation at 1.1%. That is well below the 1.6% from the prior quarter and well below the lower inflation target of 2.0%.  

Australia's job data came out weaker than expected and that too helped contribute to selling in that currency.   

The USD was a beneficiary of the "other's stories" today.  Jobless claims and Philly Fed were close to expectations. 

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
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Forex and Bitcoin news for Uk and European trading Thursday 19 April 2018

The focus for the session was on UK retail sales but there has plenty else going on.

EUR/USD had an early pop, taking out Asian highs (and some short stops losses) on a move toward 1.24  ..... where resistance awaited. It has subsequently come off 40-odd points and is just above session lows (of an admittedly small range) as I post.

We had some big moves in European fixed interest:

  • The German 10 year bund yield is closing in on its biggest rise in 2 months
  • While French 10yr bond yield up also ( approaching its biggest jump since early January)

Inflation expectations in the euro zone are at a 5 week high (using the five-year, five-year, breakeven forward rate (to around 1.7% , up from a low around 1.67% earlier in the month) - higher oil prices boosts the outlook for a pick up in price pressures (oil rose during the session, WTI above 69.20 at one stage before coming back though)

UK retail sales (March) came in at a bad miss on already low expectations. GBP/USD was marked lower, bounced a little and is mid-range for the session (more or less) as i update. And a small range here also, BTW.

USD/JPY has also been confined to a small range and without much as a fresh driver either way.

AUD (see the Asia wrap for data and commodity price movement impact) came back from highs above 0.7810 to be under the figure as I update. NZD (again, see Asia wrap for info on data etc.) is on its session lows.

Gold was hit with sellers, dropping to circa 1346 from highs earlier above 1354. Hard to pin a reason on this, but some stops under 1348 were a contributor.

Added - as I posted USD/CHF spiked, taking EUR/CHF to just shy of 1.2. No fresh news to drive it, stops above 0.9700 in USD/CHF triggered.... and then USD/CHF came back down. Meanwhile, GBP/USD has recovered all of tis losses after the retail sales data

 

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