Via a recent Morgan Stanley note on USTs, see yield being sent lower by an eventual Federal Reserve pivot, initially in rhetoric::

  • We maintain a bullish stance on government bond duration and expect yields to trend lower.
  • Stubbornly hawkish central bank rhetoric remains the biggest impediment to a larger bond market rally, but could provide dip-buying opportunities in preparation for a rhetorical policy pivot
us 10 year yield 18 July 2023