It was a crazy night
Unexpected events are the greatest opportunities in markets.
The binary nature of referendums makes them particularly interesting and none was more fascinating than the June 23, 2016 Brexit vote.
What made it such a great night at ForexLive was how the market was paralyzed because of some combination of denial and not understanding the numbers. The rolling tally was being reported and early in the night 'Remain' was ahead but if you could read between the lines, 'Leave' was winning.
And reading between the lines is what we were doing.
Cable was at 1.4580 and we were using models for each individual constituency to compare them to what they should have been showing. The data was clear but the market was in disbelief and when it became clear, cable was down to 1.2850.
What made it such a great night was that the trade wasn't on some kind of wild bet, or instinct or even a skew in the probabilities. It was on straight data and live analysis as it rolled in.
I was following the news everywhere and no one was dialed in like we were. It was a great night for us and for anyone who was trading with us.
Here is a sampling of a few of the things were wrote.
- The GBP market is frozen in fear right now but Leave is very close to the lead - GBP/USD at 1.4580
- Chance of a Leave win at 68% - GBPUSD at 1.4570, before the big spill
- London is Cameron's only hope now - GBP/USD at 1.44
- It's over and it's a Brexit - model forecaster - GBP/USD at 1.4230
- "It's over" again - GBP/USD at 1.40
- Better trades might be outside GBP now - Gold at $1280, S&P 500 futures down 20 points (100 now)
- Trading fundamentals is my life. Days like the Brexit vote are what I live for.
I'm sure there are so many events and moments that I've forgotten. I often repeat that "there's always another trade" and it would be great if a trade like Brexit came along every day but markets are awash with opportunity if you're ready, disciplined and paying attention.
We've been in the game for 10 years now at ForexLive and anyone who has survived that long in markets has almost-surely profited. If we can all stick together for another 10 years, I'm sure the next decade will be even better.
Thanks so much for reading and being a part of this wonderful journey.
Here is my full top-10 memories list:
- 10 ForexLive memories #2: Election surprises
- 10 ForexLive memories #3: Poking fun at central bankers
- 10 ForexLive memories #4: We learned a few things
- 10 ForexLive memories #5: Words, to pictures, to video
- 10 ForexLive memories #6: This design had its benefits
- 10 ForexLive memories #7: The EUR/CHF floor breaks
- 10 ForexLive memories #8: The EUR/CHF floor initiated
- 10 ForexLive memories #9: It's been fun
- Anniversary special: 10 memories from 10 years of ForexLive -- #10 remember this page?