March 2017 UK retail sales -1.8% vs -0.2% exp m/m

Author: Ryan Littlestone | Category: News

Details from the March 2017 UK retail sales data report 21 April 2017

  • Prior 1.4%. Revised to 1.7%
  • Ex-fuel -1.5% vs -0.4% exp m/m. Prior 1.3%. Revised to 1.6%
  • 1.7% vs 3.4% exp y/y. Prior 3.7%
  • Ex-fuel 2.6% vs 3.9% exp y/y. Prior 4.1%
  • Q1 sales -1.4% vs 0.8% prior q/q
  • 2.1% vs 5.4% prior y/y 

Inflation is starting to hit home on the consumer front. The ONS seem to think that's the reason there's been a drop across "a whole range of sectors". The sales deflator jumping to 3.3% vs 2.9% prior y/y backs up that theory.

Although the pound has naturally dropped on the bad figures, we need to be careful because if it's all about inflation squeezing the consumer, that's something that will test the BOE's resolve and could result in a more hawkish stance. Weak sales can be read as weak for the economy (normally a rate cut move), unless it's being inflation driven (rate hike move), which is obviously pound positive.

GBPUSD ran down to the important support at 1.2770, pulling up a few pips short of there. The bounce so far has been rejected at 1.2800.

UK retail sales ex-fuel y/y