The big focus for the session is the Bank of Japan statement. Will there be a policy change or not? We have had leaks of information, but unfortunately, the leaks support both sides of the argument. Which is not much help, is it?
I posted yesterday on spiking implied volatility, noting that its not unusual prior to the unpredictable BOJ, but that this spike is a big one. Bigger than normal, and if you like information generated by market pricing this one is well worth listening to.
As for timing of the statement, you most likely already know that the Bank of Japan statement is not set for a specific time. Based on experience its reasonable to expect it sometime in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window (10.30 - 11.30pm US Eastern time). The later it gets in that window, or stretching later than 0330 they more likely it is that there has been some change made to policy (on the reasoning that there was more discussion/debate). Having said this new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda seems to get the statement out more quickly than did previous governor Kuroda.
Ahead of the BOJ are the data from Tokyo area inflation. This is regarded as a leading indicator of nationwide inflation but its not a perfect 1 for 1 indication. The latest nationwide data, for May, showed all three measures of CPI above 3%, where they have been persistent. And yet the BOJ insists inflation is transitory, and the latest we've had from the Japanese government is they think ther same:
- This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
- The times in the left-most column are GMT.
- The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
