Morgan Stanley slashed its China 2023 economic growth forecast to 5.0% from 5.7% previously
- and for 2024 to 4.5% from 4.9% previously
The change came after the weak data from China on Monday:
- China Q2 GDP +0.8% q/q (expected 0.5%)
- China June: Retail sales +3.1% y/y (expected 3.2%) Industrial output +4.4% y/y (exp 2.7%)
Morgan Stanley said
- the GDP report was weak
- China's government is being slow to provide stimulus
- “Market scepticism on China’s growth outlook is on the rise”
Justin posted on a similar downgraded forecast from JPM:
Additionally, Societe General cuts its 2023 forecast to 5%, from 5.5%
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In recent months the knives have come out for China growth forecasts:
- Goldman Sachs have taken a knife to their China GDP forecasts: 5.4% for 2023 (6.0% prior)
- ICYMI - Nomura slashes its forecast for China's 2023 GDP growth to 5.1% from 5.5%
- UBS revised down its China 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.2%, from 5.7% previously
- HSBC slashes China 2023 GDP forecast to 5.3% from 6.3% previously
- Citi cuts its China GDP forecast for 2023 to 5.5%, from 6.1%
- S&P cuts its China GDP forecast for 2023 to 5.2% from 5.5% - expects uneven growth pace
