RBC Capital Markets forecasts a record high for the S&P 500 in 2024, citing:
- sentiment is constructive for now
- valuations can stay higher than many investors realise
- declining inflation should act as a tailwind for price to earnings multiples
- labour market resilience indicates economy should avoid recession
- targets 5,000 level (and with a bull case of 5300) which is the median of five different models used by the analysts at RBC, taking into account sentiment, valuations, earnings, the economy, politics, and the cross-asset dynamic between stocks and fixed interest
Caveats noted:
- the US presidential election will be a source of uncertainty
- a slower economy expected in 2024 through 2025 is the biggest headwind to equity market performance
