It's a bad idea to trust polls or prediction markets after what we've seen for the past decade but there's still nothing better. Nate Silver gives the Democrats a 16% chance of holding the House but betting markets put it lower than that with Predictit at 10%.
The only real drama is whether the Dems manage to hold onto 50 seats in the Senate. Among the close rates, here are the Predictit numbers; though I would not that most have ticked 1-3 cents in favor of Democrats today.
- Nevada 67% Republican
- Pennsylvania 60% Republican
- Arizona - dead even
- New Hampshire 39% Republican
- Senate overall 69% Republican
I don't see Georgia trading but it will most-likely head to a runoff in a month with the Libertarian candidate polling at 3-4% and the race very close.
See the numbers here.
For me, the only scenario I could see have strong (negative) market impacts would be a Democratic sweep.
