2015 starts with seven major economic events
The first trading day of 2015 was a big one with the US dollar surging through some key levels. The week ahead promises to be more of the same with a jam-packed economic calendar
1. German December CPI on Monday
The market moves as the regional data is released ahead of the national tabulation. Total CPI is expected at just 0.3%, down from 0.6% in November. That’s awfully close to zero and it’s only going to trend lower from here. German retail sales are also due on Monday.
2. US ISM non-manufacturing on Tuesday
I’d argue this is the most important US data point of the week. The narrative of a US economic acceleration into 2015 is well-entrenched but the underlying numbers aren’t as strong as the rhetoric. The first test will be the ISM non-manufacturing report. In November it was near the highs of the year at 59.3 and it’s expected to slip to 58.0.
3. German employment on Wednesday
The ECB is close to launching QE at the Jan 22 meeting so every data point is extra-important. Germany confusingly releases the change unemployment and 6K are expected to leave the rolls of the unemployed. Nothing would help bring the reluctant Germans on board with QE like a bad report.
4. December Fed minutes on Wednesday
The danced around the removal of ‘considerable time’ in a master-stroke that left a messy mark on a few traders. Aside from that distraction, the Fed was upbeat about the economy and unworried about the effect of oil on inflation. That kind of tone will keep the bid in the US dollar.
Janet Yellen shows which way interest rates are headed
5. Chinese CPI on Friday (late Thursday in the US)
The market is clamoring for some stimulus from China and with CPI expected at 1.5% in December, why not? Officials are worried about fueling bubbles but if prices continue to fall, they will have to act.
6. UK manufacturing production on Friday
The rout in the pound to start off 2015 has caught everyone’s attention and more than a few traders wished they had hit the ‘sell’ button after the Markit UK PMI. It didn’t miss expectations by much but it started a massive wave of selling and traders will be quicker to act on something similar from UK industrial and manufacturing numbers on Friday.
7. Non-farm payrolls
Jobs are less of a focus than they were last year as the Fed is now in a comfortable spot in regards to jobs but there is no such thing as an unimportant jobs report. The consensus is 243K but those estimates will shift after the ADP and ISM numbers.