AUDUSD forex technical analysis 4 May 2015
Some great discussion in my RBA post and irrespective of which way you're leaning, we need to have a look at the levels that could be in play
The 200 mma is the level that's having a big say in holding up the downside since the fall from the 0.80's
AUDUSD monthly
That level likely won't count for much over the RBA and in the minutes leading up to the announcement. It will become a strong supporting tech level if they don't cut or cut as expected but rule out further cuts
0.7700 is the next obvious target on easing headlines and if the market gets a 25bp cut it could well be the knee jerk reaction level that will hold. Under that there's every chance for another look back at the years lows around 0.75. Should we get a shock then the next area will be around 0.7475 and then around 0.7400 being the April 2009 high before the break back up to the 0.95's+. That area also marked monthly support late in 2006
AUDUSD daily chart
For the topside, and the prospect that the RBA sits on their hands, the recent highs at 0.8025/0.8055/0.8075 could be the stretch point initially and a base around 0.8025/30 will need to be made to keep the move up intact. If it does we can think about a move to the 38.2 fib of the 0.9400 fall at 0.8245. Just ahead of that comes the 200 dma at 0.8205
As with all rate decisions it's not only the decision itself that will move the prices but the comments that come with it. On it's own a 25bp cut with a neutral statement could be a head fake on a downside move.
Our man down under will be guiding you through the decision so be prepared for the details