Employment change of 15K est. Unemployment rate of 5.4%
The Australian employment report will be released in the new trading day (0130 GMT). The expectations are for
- 15K employment change (vs 50.9K last)
- the unemployment rate to remain at 5.4%.
- Participation rate is expected to remain at 65.7%
- Full time employment last month rose by 41.2K
- Part time rose by 9.7K
- Last report post
Last month the numbers were pretty strong, but the upside momentum was somewhat limited. The price for the AUDUSD consolidated in a narrow trading range, with 0.7311 -28 as a low swing area.
Technically, the price fell below that swing area at 0.7311-28 last week and the price has trended lower over the last few days. A lower close today will be the 5th straight down day (need to close below the 0.7236 - the price is trading just below that level now)
On a stronger number today, there should be a move higher with that 0.7311-28 area a target on the topside. We are currently about 78-95 pips away from that area. I would expect a rally toward that level would attract sellers - as long as it is not a blow out bullish number.
If the number comes out weaker than expectations (with downward revisions), the next swing area on the daily chart will be targeted. That area comes in at 0.7144-59. At the current level of 0.7233, that area is about 74-88 pips away - a distance similar to an upside target move.
So for traders, we sit in the middle of the next key target support at 0.7144-59, and the target resistance at 0.7311-28. Which extreme the market shoots for will be dependent on the relative strength or weakness of the numbers. That will be anyone's guess.
Drilling to the hourly chart, on a move higher the 100 hour MA (blue line) is at 0.7278 and moving lower. A move above that level will be an interim bullish target before the 0.7311-28 area. Move and stay above would be needed to keep more of a bullish bias. Be aware. Be prepared.
