EURUSD drops to the 1.2300 area. Trading range narrow.

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | eurusd

Stays in Friday range

It is Monday after the Friday US employment report. That report showed strong job gains, lower than expected wages, the Unemployment rate came in at 4.1% which was 0.1% higher than expected.  It was a good report but mixed vs expectations.  The USD on Friday waffled above and below its 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below). The close was just below the 200 hour MA.

Today, the price tried to go higher into the London/European session, but after taking out the Friday high at 1.2334, that run failed, the price pivoted lower, fell back below the 200 hour MA at 1.23153 currently, and traded to a low of 1.22898.  The extreme low from Friday, reached 1.22723.   The low is near the 50% at 1.22995 and a trend line connecting the low from March 1 and Friday's low (see chart above) at 1.22909 currently.

Taking a broader look at the daily chart to start the week, the EURUSD has been trading between 1.2053 to 1.2555 over the last 2+ months. The midpoint of that range is 1.2304. We are trading just below that level at 1.2295 currently. 

The hourly chart with the 
  • 1.2334 retracement, 
  • the high for the day at 1.2340 and the 
  • 100 hour MA at 1.23806 are upside targets.  
Get above the 100 hour MA, and there is room to roam back toward the high of March (and then the highs from February).  

On the downside, the key daily targets come in at 
  • 1.2211 which is a lower trend line on that chart, 
  • the 38.2% of the move up from the November low at 1.2172 and the 
  • swing low from March 1 at 1.2153. 
All of those are downside targets. Get below those levels this week, and the pair is out of the 2 month up and down range.  

Right now - for today, the pair sits near the trend line at 1.22909, and within a narrow trading range.  The bias is a bit more negative below the 200 hour MA and after failing on the move above the Friday close/borken 38.2% retracement on the hourly. Nevertheless, shorts need to get that push below the 1.22909 trend line to keep the selling going.  
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