EUR/USD is on the hunt for a seventh straight day of gains

EUR/USD W1 27-07

The high today hit 1.1725 as the pair flirts with a firm break above the 1.1700 handle and continues to trade in and around the figure level for the time being.

Dollar weakness is part of the story driving the upside momentum, but the euro itself has been on a solid run this month as the single currency is also benefiting from the calmer mood in the euro area bond market on the fiscal response by EU leaders.

When looking at the chart, there is some resistance around 1.1709 if you take the 38.2 retracement level from the swing move higher from 2017 to 2018. The 1.1700 level in itself is a key psychological barrier so that adds to some resistance.

But when looking at the chart, the Fib retracement that I'd be more focused on would be the swing move lower from 2018 to 2020. That marks the next key resistance at 1.1822, near the September 2018 high of 1.1815.

While that could suggest the euro rally could still have legs to go, the thing to be mindful about is how stretched positioning actually looks. Euro longs are at their most stretched since April 2018 and that was also when the rally in EUR/USD started to falter.

In my view, while there are plenty of reasons to stay bullish on the euro, positioning factor could suggest that we may be in for a squeeze down the road before the next leg higher - plenty of calls for 1.2000 - can be achieved.

In the bigger picture, as we start to approach 1.2000 as well, I wouldn't be surprised if the ECB steps in with verbal intervention against the single currency as well.

We saw that in 2015 and also in 2017-18, so hints of that could be a point of consideration for euro bulls to take a breather if the upside momentum goes running too fast.