Lots of failed breaks in up and down day today
The EURUSD opened below it's 100 hour MA (lower blue line on the 5-minute chart below), but climbed back above.
The price rally in the Asian session stalled ahead of the 200 hour MA (green line - currently at 1.1958). That failure to crack the MA, sent the price tumbling lower and back below the 100 hour MA (blue line at 1.19315).
It failed again and for the rest of the London session, the price spent time at the upper half of the trading range. In the process, the 200 hour MA was broken 4 different times.
Like the falls below the 100 hour MA, the momentum on each break could not be sustained.
The last hour saw the price move below the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5-minute chart at 1.1946 area (the 100 is now at 1.19487 and the 200 bar MA is at 1.19449). The price tumbled again. The price fell back below the 100 hour MA again at 1.19315.
What now?
Well the day is filled with a bunch of failures and we are currently seeing the price move back above the 200 hour MA. Shorts are hoping it is just a final test and the price starts to move back lower. If not, we will see a move back toward the intraday MAs (yellow area in the chart above).
At some point the ups and downs will stop, and the pair will make a run. As traders we can only trade the levels and hope for follow through. If the breaks fail, traders need to be cautious and even think about getting out. There will always be another trade.