Focusing on intraday clues
The AUDUSD fell today on the back of weaker than expected retail sales (-0.3% vs +0.1% est.).
Looking at the hourly chart, the price decline fell below the recent lows from last Friday at 0.7367 but fell short of reaching a lower trend line target (the low reached 0.73287 while the trend line came in at 0.7321. What happened next, is that the next low stalled at the 0.7335 area. That was an earlier swing low. So on the hourly chart, that higher level became a new intraday support level and the break lower is more of a failure.
Drilling to the 5-minute chart, you can see the up and down price action at the lows. Specifically, note the lows at the 0.7635/36 area. The price fall below fell short of its lower trend line and then the prior low at 0.7335 stalled the fall.
What now?
We are above the 100 bar MA (blue line in the chart below) and have held that line. On the topside the 200 bar MA (green line at 0.7358 is being tested (along with the trend line on the chart below). Get above gives the buyers more control intraday.
We are lower, but price action is trying to show a bottoming potential. Stay above the 100 bar MA on 5-minute chart (risk for longs). Get and stay above the 200 bar MA and trend line for bulls to feel more in control.
