Intraday action up and down. Employment due later today.
The AUDUSD has been weaving a pattern above and below the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5- minute chart. The last hour has seen a correction to the 200 bar MA (green line - green circle 8) and held. The price in the last 30 minutes has moved back above the 100 bar MA (blue line), but failed. The price is back below and moves toward the 200 bar MA
A break below the 200 bar MA will be eyed now for a more bearish sentiment.
Later today (at 9;30 PM ET) the employment report for June will be released. The expectation is for the employment change to show zero (0.0K) change vs 42K last month. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.1% from 6.0%. The unemployment rate reached 6.3% in January. It has been pushing lower to 6.0%.
Governor Stevens this week said that "durther depreciation seems likely and necessary" for the AUDUSD. The comments helped to pushed the AUDUSD below the 0.7500 level. Lower Chinese stock prices and lower price for iron ore (the price of iron ore fell to new lows today - see chart below) are certainly not a positive for the export/China reliant economy and helped to push the price to the lowest level since the first week of May 2008.
Looking at the hourly chart, the price today extended to new lows at 0.7371 but found a buyer and recovered to near the closing level from yesterday at the 0.7452. The high reached 0.7449 in the NY trading session. A move above that high will be eyed as a catalyst for further corrective buying. The 0.7451 is the 50% of the move down from Monday's high increasing that levels importance going forward (through the employment report). Move above and stay above and the buyers will be showing they can take back at least some control. The next price targets would look toward 0.7470 and then the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) at the 0.7488 area (and moving lower after each hour).
A bearish move needs to first get below the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at 0.7418 and stay below that level. From there, traders will want to see 0.7400 taken out and a move toward and through the 0.7371 low. A break of that, and the door opens up for further downside potential.