100 and 200 bar MA converge
The EURUSD is hanging near the lows for the trading day. The range was extended after the US 8:30 AM ET data, but only by a pip or two. For the day, the range is a small 55 pips. The average over the last 22 trading days is 116 pips. There is room to roam. The price is rebounding now toward what has been a remembered area between 1.0961 and 1.0968. if the sellers are to remain in control, the price should remain below this area (risk for sellers).
Earlier today at the highs, the price tested the 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above)and could not extend. Both the 100 and the 200 hour moving averages (blue and green lines in the chart above), are now converged a move above the 1.0968 will likely look toward a retest of the MAs. They come in at 1.0994 currently. These MAs will be key in determining the bullish or bearish bias for the week. Stay below and the bears have the edge. Move above and the bias to the downside is still the favored bias.
Targets on the downside today would look toward the 1.0921-256 and not far from that, the upward trend line at 1.0912 currently. The low from last week came in at 1.08925.
Later today the US will release construction spending data for June (estimate +0.6 vs. +0.8 last month) along with the ISM Manufacturing data (est. 53.5 unchanged from the prior month). The Prices paid is expected to dip to 49.3 from 49.5.
So far, a slow start to the week.