Trades between 100 and 200 hour MA
The EURUSD is trading nearer high levels as NY traders enter. The pair has had a steady, but slow climb higher from the Asia-Pacific low at the 1.09314 (low for the new week). The move higher has been able to extend above the 1.0961- 1.09678 area (where number of swing lows and highs have occurred since July 21) and also the 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below), which currently stands at 1.0971. In the 1st hour of NY trading, there has been a look below the 100 hour moving average, but that was quickly reversed. The buyers remain in control for the time being.
The range for the day is only 56 pips. Yesterday, the range was 55. This represented the 4th lowest trading range for 2015 (the lowest range for the year is 50 pips). It is unlikely that we have back-to-back near record low ranges. So I once again am anticipating an extension. It simply is the most likely scenario (or having back to back low ranges is not likely). Of course, with the price trading near the highs for the day, the upside seems the most logical place to extend. As a result, traders will be eyeing the 100 hour MA (at 1.0971) and the 1.0961 level for support. Hold, and there should be a run to new highs at some point. Fail and who knows? Maybe the move higher is over and the market rotates to the lows. The 1.0921-256 is another swing area from this non-trending up and down market environment we are in for this pair.
If the upside is extended, the 200 hour MA at the 1.0997 currently and the 38.2% of the move down from Fridays Employment cost index high at 1.10007 become the next targets, followed by the 1 1013- 110218 area (see top yellow area in the chart above). PS. The 100 day MA is at 1.10267. All are in play.