Retraces to 200 day MA
The EURUSD has lost some of the steam the upside in trading today. A new high was made (up to 1.1309) but it lacked the urgency seen in the NY trading session yesterday.
The correction lower has come down to test the 200 day MA at the 1.12484 level. I would expect that due to respect for the 200 day MA, traders will lean against the level (and are doing that). The 50% of the move up from the July 2015 low comes in at 1.1259. The low for the day split the difference - coming in at 1.1253.
A break back below the 200 day MA would look toward 1.1229 where the swing high from September 8th is found. The 100 and 200 hour MA comes in below that level at 1.1202. Those moving averages are converged and would provide a key downside support if the US numbers today come out on the strong side.
Until the break below that key support (200 day MA), the dip buyers are happy. On the topside, the highs over the last 24 hours will of course be targeted as will the recent highs in September at the 1.1319 and 1.1331 (the high for the month).
PPI (-0.1% MoM est and YoY -0.9% est. Ex food and energy +0.1% MoM est. and YoY +0.7% est) and Michigan consumer confidence for September (91.1 est vs 91.9) will be the fundamental drivers. Michigan had multi year high (and high for the year) back in January at at 98.1. The low for the year came in May 2015 at 90.7.