Still confined.
The EURUSD tested the 1.0788 level on the opening yesterday. That level corresponded with the 50% of the move up from the December low (ECB decision day when the EURUSD moved 466 pips). The low was 1.0786 (see daily chart below).
The high today was helped by a plunging Shanghai market (-6.42%) saw the EURUSD move up to the 50% midpoint of last weeks trading range (at 1.0876) and the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below) at the 1.08756 (that moving average is currently a bit lower at 1.08738). The high price reached 1.08739. HOLDS THAT LINE. An hour or so later the price was back below the 100 hour MA (blue line in chart below) and the range was extended to the downside.
The range for the day is still a mild 55 pips (the 22 day average is 97 pips) . So there is room to roam (i.e. for an extension lower or higher). My question? Does the bearishness seen today continue?
We know the EURUSD is up and down and all around. The range for the month is still a narrow 274 pips which is the narrowest since November 2014 (I am expecting that there will be an extension of that range before month end. It might have to wait for the FOMC tomorrow though. We are near the middle of the months range now at 1.0848).
Looking at the 5 minute chart, we are getting a push higher right now and have moved toward the 100, 200 bar MAs on the 5-minute chart at 1.0843 and 1.0845. The 50% of the day's trading range is at 1.0846 and the 100 hour MA at 1.08493. That is the level to stay below if the sellers are to remain in control. If it can happen, the range extension looks like it would be to the downside. A move above "all that stuff" and traders will likely be swayed the other way.
