200 week MA, 2015 swing high, 38.2% retracement stall the fall
Have you ever wanted to crack something open to understand what makes it work? We can do that in trading with charts.
Earlier in the week, the 100 bar on the 4-hour chart was a key swing level for the week. Move above it bullish. move and stay below is more bearish.
Monday opened lower, got close to that 100 bar MA (blue line in the chart above and sold off.
The pair broke below the 1.1876 level and 200 bar MA on the 4 hour chart and then out of the 268 pip trading range that confined the range over the last 4+weeks of trading (red box).
The pair moved lower, and stalled near:
- The 38.2% of the move up from June 20th swing low at 1.17205
- The 200 week moving average at 1.1718
- The swing high from August 2015 at 1.1711.
The low today reached 1.17163.
The price has swung off the key support level (cause for pause at the level) and moved up to 1.1776. That high is still below the close from yesterday at 1.1791. It did test a swing low from August 25th at 1.1772.
Drilling to the 5 minute chart, the sharp correction higher of the key support and above 100 and 200 bar MAs (blue and green lines) and a topside trend line. But in the last 30 or so minutes, the price has has fallen back between the 100 bar MA at 1.1740 and the 200 bar MA at 1.17574. Do the buyers come in against the 100 bar MA? Does the market spend some time and consolidate the fall this week?
Sellers took control on Monday near the 100 bar MA on the 4 hour chart. They reached the key target today. So the sledding should be tougher from here. Watch the levels. I would not be surprised to see some up and down trading.
