The GBPUSD is the "Belle of the Ball" today
The EURUSD is taking a back seat to the GBPUSD move today. The pair has a below average trading range of 63 pips vs. 97 pips for the 22 day average. The high has stalled below the 1.0900 level (high reached 1.0896) which is a good place to stop. The 1.0896 level was the low from October 28th (FOMC meeting day).
The price wander lower (off the high) has moved down toward the closing level from yesterday at 1.0864 (we just printed 1.0858). We are currently trading at 1.0870. Overall, a dud of a day. But remember, the belle of the ball is the GBPUSD. The EURUSD was more of the focus on Tuesday and Wednesday.
What can we look forward to?
Well the focus will be more on the employment numbers tomorrow. Chair Yellen did say December is "Live" and with the ECB thinking more stimulus, that should be bearish for the ERUUSD, but Chair Yellen also gave a lot of "It is "Live"...but's" citing global situation and data going forward.
Today, the BOE took their hat out of the tightening sooner rather than later ring. They are concerned about inflationary trends/growth. That is a negative for the "global situation" ledger. The US employment data will be key tomorrow. 180K is expected. Is that good enough for the Fed to act? I think it is in the "Yes" ledger - at least from the Fed members who have one more meeting in 2015 to get themselves out of the painted corner they currently stand in.
Remember though, it all comes down to what the market thinks. That means, it is what the price does in relation to the technicals.
From a technical perspective., if the price moves above the 1.0900 level and then ultimately the 100 and 200 hour MAs, that will be more bullish (i.e., the Fed is not tightening). If the price moves below the 1.0800-07 area (see daily chart below) that would be a vote that the Fed is on it's way to tightening.
That decision will probably not be made until tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET (or at least known with certainty). Those level will be my focus tomorrow. Until then? Expect a little of this, and a little of that....Just like we are seeing in trading today...
PS. the EUR action today is in the EURGBP.