Tumbles lower. Can it continue?

The GBPUSD has continued it's reversal after failing to extend to above resistance at 1.4984-1.5000 level in trading today. The move lower has brought the pair more into the center of the recent range (at 1.4859 and also nearer other support levels from trend line and 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines).

It seems the employment declines are being discounted as an aberration by the stock market.

The bond market has seen yields move higher - especially on the long end where the 30 year bond is up from 2.485% to 2.565%. The 10 year yield is up to 1.903% from 1.838%. The 2 year is up only 2 basis points. It seems the bonds are hinting of a Fed on hold but the deflation fear is over.

Wages rose 0.3% in the employment report. Today, Dominos Pizza CEO said that he will have to pay higher wages. Are wages going to ratchet higher across the board in the lower end of the pay scale? It seems that way. Has enough time lapsed from new jobs in 2014 to lift wages in 2015 for others on the pay scale? Will jobs truly bounce back or will the higher dollar hurt growth/jobs. Will higher wages take money away from capex.

Oil prices were up 6% today and closed near the highs. This was while the dollar was going higher in the afternoon trading.

Dudley continues the idea that the "liftoff timing still uncertain, will be data dependent"

Bullish economy thoughts

  • Downside surprises temporary
  • Expects the economy to pick up after a weak 1Q
  • Sees inflation firming later this year
  • Expects jobless rate to approach 5% by 2H 2015

Bearish economy thoughts.

  • March data signals 1% GDP 1Q
  • Must monitor if jobs data a foreshadow of deeper slow down
  • Relatively shallow rate rise path after liftoff
  • Dollar a drag on economy
  • Lower oil to slow investment in the vibrant energy industry

The story can change, like the technicals changed today from dollar bearish to dollar bullish.

For the GBPUSD, last week we tried to lows (falling below the trend line but failiing). Today, we tried to see what it was like near the highs, and the market did not like the idea of >1.5000 Can the downside momentum continue? I am not so sure but the support below will play a role. My gut says, however, that it may just be"how does the market feel today/this morning/this afternoon/this hour for a while as the spring data comes in (and perhaps the UK election passes). So be patient but don't be surprised to see the market bounce around a little more.. Watching 1.4850 for support.