Down on the day
The USDCAD is seeing some minor selling in an up and down trading day. Retail sales MoM came out better than estimate at 0.5% vs 0.1% est. but the ex Auto was actually lower than expectations (at 0.0% vs +0.2% est).
The price of oil is little changed on the day (off highs).
Technically, the pair came off a strong move higher yesterday after the BoC lowered growth forecasts. Higher oil inventories also contributed to a softer CAD on weaker oil prices.
Today, the price extended above the 50% retracement of the move down from the September high at 1.31436 (the high extended to 1.3158). Momentum has slowed and the price has worked back lower in up and down activity. Yesterday closed at 1.3138. The price is currently just above the 1.3100 level.
Recall, that the move lower from the September peak, stalled at trend line support last week. The election results this week had a limited impact despite less political risk due to a majority win by Trudeau (at least there won't be another election for 4 years).
Looking at the 5 minute chart, the pair has corrected to the 38.2% of the surge higher yesterday. That level comes in at 1.30855. The
In other commodity pairs, the AUDUSD has been up and down too. The pair moved below the 0.7200 on two separate. On the topside, the 0.7238 had two separate tops. The low for the day extended to 0.7181. The 0.7197 level was the swing low going back to October 14. The low yesterday stalled at 0.7202. The last few hourly bars have held against the 0.7197 level. Like the USDCAD, the AUDUSD is more interested in watching the EURUSD it seems...
The NZDUSD rallied higher in the Asia-Pacific session after finance minister English said the Kiwi$ had adjusted considerably already. The pair rallied on risk on buying after Draghi sent European shares higher, but is back down off those highs and just successfully tested support against the 100 and 200 hour MA (blue and green lines in the chart below) at 0.6765-73 area. There are a series of 3 lows at the 0.6749 level today. Keep the level in mind in trading going forward.
