Retests the 200 hour MA
Earlier in the London morning session, the USDJPY moved above trend line and the 100 hour MA level (bullish). The price did not run away but it was the first look (and close above the 100 hour MA since last Friday (bullish). The better than expected ADP report propelled the price above the 200 hour MA AND the 50% retracement of the move down from the May 24th high at 111.29 level. Key level.
The price moved toward the high for the week at 111.459. The 61.8% retracement is also near the high target at 111.49. We currently are back down testing that 200 hour MA line/50% line. Key test. So far, traders are leaning against the key support level. If it holds, we could/should see a rotation back higher (and retest of the weeks high). If we break, we move back in between the goal posts defined by the 100 and 200 hour MAs.
Taking a broader view of the daily chart (see chart below), the recent price decline from the May high tested the 61.8% retracement line yesterday. The stall was a safe distance from the 200 day MA (green line) which is currently at 110.16. That is also close to the swing low from March and the low seen earlier this month (at 110.23). Store that area away. If the employment picture tomorrow is a disaster (weak), that area should solicit additional stops on a break. PS a break above the reestablished trend line at 1.1170 is more bullish.
