Goldman Sachs saw the statement and projection materials as leaning a bit on the dovish side, with the press conference as leaning to the hawkish side.

For the minutes, we think the key questions are: (1) do participants acknowledge that the word “patience” (included in the new forward guidance) draws a parallel with the timeline for the 2004 hiking cycle? (2) How prominently did oil market developments figure into discussion of the outlook for growth and inflation? (3) Was there any concern expressed about mixed signals on long-term inflation expectations? (4) Do the minutes echo Chair Yellen’s remark that the path of rate hikes, once begun, may not be smooth?, and (5) Is there any further discussion of exit strategy tools, such as segregated cash accounts?

The view from Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Separately, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch lay out some clear biases in their view of the minutes.

The December FOMC statement revealed a lack of agreement among Fed officials over communication, as evidenced by the complicated extension of the forward guidance language and the dissents from both sides of the hawk-dove spectrum. The minutes may give some insight into how extensive these disagreements are, particularly over the conditions that would allow for liftoff sometime in 2015. As the statement skewed slightly more dovish than expected in December, we expect the minutes to follow.

The risk is that they are more reminiscent of the tone of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference remarks, and thus would be seen as somewhat hawkish…Given the volatility heading into the December meeting, we do expect more discussion of global economic, geopolitical and financial market risks than in the statement. If these risks are downplayed as in the October minutes, that would be mildly hawkish.

The retention of the “considerable time” phrase even as a “patient” approach to policy was added suggests the Committee could not agree on changes to the guidance language. Explicitly noting the equivalence of the two suggests significant concern of an undesirable market selloff. We expect an active debate over communication in the minutes, which may give some indication of how the Committee will modify the guidance going forward. Discussion over the conditions that would warrant rate hikes will be notable as well.

The 2015 voters also lean more dovish, suggesting more caution than usual when interpreting hawkish remarks in the minutes

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