What levels are in play in the new trading day
EURUSD: The EURUSD moved away from its 200 week moving average and is looking to close comfortably below that level today. The 200 week moving average currently comes in at 1.15689. The price is trading at 1.15296. Also of importance is that the high for the day came in just above that moving average at 1.15696. Clearly sellers leaned against the moving average level which is a bearish development.
The next major target comes in at the 50% midpoint of the move up from the 2020 low. That level comes in at 1.14918. As long as the price can remain below the 200 week moving average, the 50% midpoint is in the direction of the path of the trend.
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USDJPY: The USDJPY made a another new 2021 high (see chart above) and is trading at the highest level since early December 2018. The high price today reached above the high from December 14 at 113.704, but is trading about 10 pips below that level going into the close at 113.61. The price traded above that level on four separate hourly bars today, but with NO closes above the level. That might give sellers something to lean against as a potential short with low risk. Stay below 113.704, and there is a shot for some profit-taking and more downside probing.
Of interest is that the USDJPY moved higher today despite a sluggish stock market for the second consecutive day this week. Typically, the higher stocks propel the USDJPY to the upside not sluggish stocks.
Also although the shorter-term yields are higher, the longer term US yields are lower today with the 10 year down -2.5 basis points, and the 30 year down -5.5 basis points. The two year yield and five year yield are up around three basis points however. The rise in the USDJPY this week is not consistent with the interest rate moves either (at least in the short term).
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GBPUSD: The GBPUSD had a swing low last Thursday near 1.35697. The early London session low came in at 1.35675. The US session low came in at 1.35686. So there are three separate lows within two pips of each other on the hourly chart. Move below that level in the new trading day and we should see further selling momentum.
On the topside, getting back above the 100 hour moving average at 1.36078 should solicit more buying with the swing area between 1.36403 and 1.36537 last the next upside target followed by the 50% midpoint of the move down from the September 14 high at 1.36617.
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USDCHF: The USDCHF moved briefly above a swing area between 0.9304 and 0.93101. The high price reached 0.93125, but backed off. The current price is trading between the upper swing area at 0.9306.
In the new trading day if the price get above the 0.93101 level and stay above, the buyers should pushed higher with 0.93321 and 0.93365 as the next upside targets. The high price from September reached 0.93676 that also would be a upside target
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USDCAD. The USDCAD moved to the lowest level since July 30 today in the process entered a swing area between 1.24215 or 1.24459. The low reached 1.24332 (see four hour chart above). The price has moved up and currently trades at 1.24605 going into the close. Going forward it would take a move below the 1.24215 to solicit more selling an increase the bearish bias.
On the topside the price moved below its 200 day moving average at 100 day moving average on Friday. The high price this week was able to extend back above the 100 day moving average for a few hours at 1.2489 but could not sustain momentum toward the higher 200 day moving average at 1.2509. If the prices to increase that the bullish bias, getting above the both the 100 day moving average and 200 day moving average is required. Absent that and the bears are still in control.