It’s a banner day for stocks while yen and bond shorts are making some solid headway after a few days of pain to start the year. Here are three reasons why.
1. Year-end/New Year flows are done.
The first and last week’s of the year are often ‘no go’ zones for traders and investment managers. It’s a time of year when flows dominate and moves don’t make sense. The dust has settled and traders have settled back into the groove so that meant putting some money back to work in stocks. I think that’s the main driver.
2. FOMO
Fear of missing out is at an all-time high. In the October and December stock market routs, the rebound was just as violent as the slump. Market participants saw the the beginnings of the turnaround and vowed not to miss out again.
3. Action/Economy
The US economy is far from perfect but it’s still solid. The ADP numbers on Wednesday were good and non-farm payrolls won’t offer and reasons for worry. The bigger factor is probably the acceptance that the ECB is heading towards action on Jan 22. Later we get Chinese CPI data and a weak reading will raise the likelihood of the PBOC doing more as well.